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Midway Through the First Round...

Scott — Sat, 28 Apr 2007 19:18:00 GMT

We're nearing the midway point of the first round of the NBA playoffs... let's see how my predictions are faring.

Let's start with the East...

I picked Detroit to sweep Orlando, and they did that this afternoon.
I predicted that the Cavs would sweep the Wizards, and they are playing right now with the Cavs looking to go up 3-0 in the series and well on track for a four game sweep.
My Miami-Chicago series pick put the Bulls winning in 7, although with their current 3-0 series lead and Miami's lucklaster play, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Heat swept. Nor would I be surprised if they won Game 4 only to lose back in Chicago in Game 5. Of course, technically the series is not yet over, but I find it hard to imagine that this Heat team has the resolve to battle back from a three game deficit.
Finally, the Nets-Raptors are keeping it interesting, as I suspected. The Nets currently hold a 2-1 lead after dispatching a thorough butt-kicking last night. I still like the Nets in 6.

Moving to the Western Conference...

Despite the Mavs having lost all three regular season games against the Warriors, and casting aside the Warriors's strong end to the regular season, I picked the Mavs in 4. After last night's W, the Warriors lead the series 2-1. Whoops. I honestly expected the Mavs to play better ball, to not get out-run by the Warriors. I still do think the Mavs will win as they're the better team and the Warriors's style of play is usual inconsistent. Regardless, this is going to be a series the Mavs are going to have to work hard for.
I picked Houston beating the Jazz in five, and I'll stick with that prediction. The Rockets currently lead the series 2-1 with Game 4 tonight in Utah.
I predicted that the Suns would best the Lakers in five, as well. After a rather improbible win on Thursday, the Lakers trail the Suns two games to one with Game 4 in LA on Sunday. I expect the Suns to resume their dominant form tomorrow and win comfortably, then return to Phoenix and close the series out.
Lastly, I picked the Spurs in 6. This series is the slowest moving of the eight, with only two games played in total thus far (although they do play later tonight). The series is knotted at one game apiece and heading to Denver. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Spurs take Game 3, then Nuggets Game 4, and then the Spurs Games 5 and 6.

2006-2007 Playoff Predictions

Scott — Thu, 19 Apr 2007 12:55:00 GMT

Each year I post my playoff predictions before the start of the playoffs, from the first round through the Finals. In last year's predictions I mistakenly picked the Pistons besting the Heat and the Spurs beating the Mavs, resulting in a Spurs-Pistons rematch with the Spurs taking the title again. Whoops.

Let's get started with this year's picks! I've put the winning team name from each series in bold.

Eastern Conference

Round 1
(1) Detroit beats (8) Orlando - Orlando has lost all four games to Detroit this season, which does not bode well for them in the playoffs. Also, Detroit is a much deeper and experienced team. Detroit in 4.

(4) Miami loses to (5) Chicago - While a lot of analysts are picking Miami to make it back to the Finals, I think they are going to have a hard time with D-Wade's injured shoulder and an older and slower Shaq. Last year the Bulls gave the Heat a fit in the playoffs, and that was before picking up big Ben Wallace. The Heat clearly have the experience, but I'll go with the younger, hungrier team in a fiercely fought series. Bulls in 7.

(2) Cleveland beats (7) Washington - No Caron Butler and no Gilbert Arenas makes this series as exciting as watching paint dry. The Wizard's record in April is 3 wins to 11 loses. Cavs in 4.

(3) Toronto loses to (6) New Jersey - Toronto has a promising future, but at this stage in the game they are too young and inexperienced to beat a veteran team in a best of seven series. There will be some close and exciting games, but in the end the Nets will clinch this series in 6.

Conference Semi-Finals (Round 2)
(1) Detroit beats (6) New Jersey - two teams with experienced, veteran teams promises to make this series an exciting one. If, by excitement, you mean watching games where the cumulative score fails to break 160. Regardless, many of these games will come down to final defensive stands. It will be a good series, but the Pistons will take it in 6.

(2) Cleveland beats (5) Chicago - after having a the equivalent of a week off in playing the depleted Wizards, the Cavs will be rested and out-play the Bulls on both ends of the court. However, the Bulls will stay in this series and make it interesting, taking it to a dramatic game 7.

Conference Finals (Round 3)
(1) Detroit beats (2) Cleveland - this game will bring back the ECSF excitement from last year, when the Cavs took the Pistons to Game 7, and I see this series going the distance, as well. And just like last year's series, I expect Game 7 to be a ho-hum experience with the Pistons controlling the game. Pistons in 7.

Western Conference

Round 1
(1) Dallas beats (8) Golden State - Yeah, the Warriors have a 3-0 regular season record against the Mavs, but I expect the real Mavs to show up and play with a vengence. The Mavs have had a sole goal this year - to get back to and win the Finals. I assure you that the Warriors will not hinder their quest. Dallas in 4.

(4) Utah loses to (5) Houston - the Rockets are rolling and Yao and T-Mac are healthy and are ready to silence their critics. Of course, winning this series wins you an invitation to get stomped by Dallas. Houston in 5.

(3) San Antonio beats (6) Denver - the West is home to the three best teams in the League, with the Spurs being one of them. They are well-coached, experienced, and have a strong front court and back court with better than average role players. Despite Denver's dynamic duo of Iverson and Anthony, the Spurs will win this series in six and the series won't be as close as some might expect.

(2) Phoenix beats (7) Los Angeles Lakers - while the Lakers/Suns series from last year went 7 and was full of exciting moments, don't expect this year's matchup to be nearly as exciting. The Suns are stronger this year with a healthy Amare, and are motivated to get to the Finals in as few games as possible. Also, the Lakers are entering the playoffs with a pretty miserable final month and are lucky to hold on to the 7 seed. While Kobe's raw talent may lead the Lakers to a victory (or two), the Suns will make mincemeat of the Lakers this postseason. Suns in 5.

Western Conference Semi-Finals (Round 2)
(1) Dallas beats (5) Houston - another brick in the wall for Dallas on their way to the NBA Finals. Dallas in 5 in a one-sided series.

(2) Phoenix beats (3) San Antonio - except for the WCF, this will be the best series of the entire playoffs. The games will be tight, competitive, and high-scoring. Nash will dazzle with his passes, Amare will explode to the basket, and Duncan will hit big shot after big shot, showing little to no emotion. This will be a roller coaster series with the Suns winning at home in Game 7.

Western Conference Finals (Round 3)
(1) Dallas beats (2) Phoenix - this will be a series for the ages, one where you will want to watch every game. And in the end, the depth of the Mavs bench will be the deciding factor, as the Suns run out of gas late down the stretch. Mavs in 7.

NBA Finals
Dallas beats Detroit - Dallas is the best team in the League this year and will rightfully win the title. The series will have its share of blowout games, but will also have one or two exciting ones. I see the Mavs winning in 5, capped by Mark Cuban running onto the court and acting like an excited fan rather than a stiff owner, which is appreciated by this blogger.

No Big Surprises in the Playoffs...

Scott — Thu, 27 Apr 2006 01:15:00 GMT

No big surprises after the first couple of games in the playoffs. The "Contenders" - San Antonio, Detroit, Miami, and Dallas - all hold 2-0 leads. Some people pegged the Bulls or Grizz as the surprise teams, and while 2-0 isn't the same as 4-0, I can't fathom any of the "Contenders" dropping four of the next five games.

Also, as I predicted, the Clippers are playing well despite their year end malaise. And the Suns/Lakers series is seeming to get more interesting, with a close game on Sunday and the Lakers up by 15 at half time. Going back to LA with the series knotted at 1-1 it vital if the Lakers hope in winning this series. Regardless of their half time lead and the possibility of a tied series, I don't see the Lakers winning this one, as the Suns have too much offensive firepower. Unless the Lakers can have monumental games from Odom and Kawme, they're going to have a hard time making it to the WCSF.

And what of the Pacers/Nets and Cavs/Wiz series? Those are shaping up nicely, too. Indy got a lucky win on Sunday, which will probably be their only one of the series. The Cavs/Wiz, I predict, will go 6 or 7, with the Wiz prevailing (only to get smacked around by Detroit).

The great games will commence in the Semi Finals... Dallas v. San Antonio being the premier matchup. And of course the conference finals promise to be delightfully entertaining as well.

2005-2006 Playoff Predictions

Scott — Thu, 20 Apr 2006 12:54:00 GMT

Time for this year's insanely inaccurate playoff predictions! But before we begin, let's review my oracle skills from last season, when I made my 2004-2005 playoff predictions. My Eastern Conference picks were nearly perfect. I ended up picking all of the first round winners and did predict the Pistons besting the Heat in the ECF. In the West, however, I took a beating as I ignorantly guessed that Denver would upset the Spurs.... which kind of ruined the whole Western Conference (although I did predict the Suns making it to the WCF). This year I'm going to put a little more faith in the Spurs!

Let's get started!

Eastern Conference

Round 1
(1) Detroit beats (8) Milwaukee - Milwaukee has the least envious position of having to face the winningest, most veteran and poised team in the NBA. Barring Chauncey and Rip running into each other leading to season-ending injuries, followed up by Ben Wallace running over to see if his team mates are all right and colliding with Rasheed, ending both of their seasons, I don't see how the Bucks can win four games out of seven against this team. In fact, I'm thinking.... sweep!

(4) Cleveland loses to (5) Washington - Washington has a bit more playoff experience and while LeBron is a man child, he's still lacks the inexperience. It's OK, BronBron, MJ didn't reach the second round of the playoffs until his fourth season.

(3) New Jersey beats (6) Indiana - With New Jersey playing on fire lately and Indiana still enjoying their descent from what could have been since the Ron Artest mele, I see this one over with in 5 with NJ dominating throughout. They'll need to win quickly, too, as Kidd could use the rest.

(2) Miami beats (7) Chicago - Don't bet against The Deisel. Yes, Shaq's another year older and another year slower, but he's still The M.D.E. Combine that with Dwayne Wade and it's hard to see this Bulls team winning more than 2 (if that).

Round 2
(1) Detroit beats (5) Washington - More of the same from the Pistons (assuming no injuries), besting the Wizards in 5.

(2) Miami beats (3) New Jersey - While the Heat are a bit banged up and in a bit of a funk, and while the Nets are playing the best ball all season, I still think the Heat have more options and can beat teams in more ways. This assumes that Shaq is able to ratchet it up a notch and Wade is 100%. This should probably be a very interesting series, but I think the Heat will take it in 6.

Round 3
(1) Detroit beats (2) Miami - A rematch of last year's ECFs. However this time the series isn't nearly as close and the Pistons win in 6. Pat Reilly proceeds to detonate the Heat roster once again in the off-season.

Western Conference

Round 1
(1) San Antonio beats (8) Sacramento - while the Spurs aren't completely healthy, they are the defending NBA champs and have a solid roster of veterans and play makers. I've learned my lesson from last year - do not doubt the Spurs!

(4) Dallas over Memphis (5) - It's a shame that Dallas is seeded fourth (as Mark Cuban will happily tell you), but no one will regret that more than the Grizz, who have yet to win a playoff series in the franchise history and aren't going to start now. The big question for Mavs fans - will Dirk show up this postseason? He'll need to if the Mavs have any hope of reaching the WCF or beyond.

(6) LA Clippers over (3) Denver - this is one of my two “upset” picks. While the Clippers have been playing lackluster basketball the last few weeks of the season, it would be nice to see them actually have some impact in the postseason for the first time in a loooooooooong time. Should be a good series. Keep on eye on Cassell and his leadership. Clippers in 7.

(2) Phoenix over (7) LA Lakers - even though the Lakers bested the Suns in the final season meeting, that final game was sans Steve Nash and included 43 from Kobe. With Nash, the Suns won the other three games against the Lakers this season. I expect Kobe will have two (or three?) big games in this series, which should be fun to watch, but I can't fathom the Lakers winning four out of seven. Phoenix in 5, unless Kobe has multiple Herculean efforts, in which case Suns in 6.

Round 2
(1) San Antonio over (4) Dallas - this is the hardest matchup to predict, in my opinion, and will likely be one of the best to watch. I have to give the edge to the defending champs here, since Dirk has yet to prove himself able to step it up in the playoffs. Last year there was a lot of finger-pointing when the Ls started to pile up. This year the Mavs will need to put any dissent behind them and learn to prosper as a team. And Dirk will have to be able to say, “Give me the ball,“ in crunch time and, more importantly, make the big play.

(2) Phoenix loses to (6) LA Clippers - here's the other “upset” pick, another risky guess. Regardless of the eventual winner, I think this is a series that goes six games, minimum. I pick the Clips, in part, because I'm hoping to see a ray of sunlight into the otherwise dreary lives of Clippers fans.

Round 3
(1) San Antonio over (6) LA Clippers - after a brutal WCSF series against the Mavs, the Spurs will have it easy against the Clippers, out playing them with ease and winning in 5.

NBA Finals

Detroit beats San Antonio in 7 - another great Finals matchup. Like last year, there will be some blowout games, but the series will go 6, if not 7, and have a fair mix of down-to-the-wire games, with the Pistrons (if they can stay healthy!) taking the title back from the Spurs.

Assessing my Playoff Picks Thus Far

Scott — Sat, 07 May 2005 18:14:00 GMT

Back on April 22nd I made my NBA playoff predictions. I am notoriously poor when it comes to making predictions, but, if you don't mind me saying, I did a pretty decent job in picking the teams through, at least, the first round.

Eastern Conference

My pick: Heat (1) beats New Jersey (8) in 6
Results: Heat (1) beat New Jersey (8) in 4. The series wasn't nearly as close as I had suspected, even with Shaq at half strength, still troubled by his leg injuries. However, the Heat did shoot insanely well, Wade and Damon Jones playing extremely well throughout the series, with a better than expected contribution from Mourning. That, coupled with the lackluster and inconsistent play from New Jersey gave the Heat an easy first round shutout, the only game of interest being the double-OT Game 3.

My pick: Detroit (2) beats the 76ers in 6.
Results: Detroit (2) beats the 76ers in 5. This series had a number of closer games than the Heat/Jersey series, but Detroit played pretty much in control throughout, even though they had some concerning deficiets in certain games. Watching this series increased my resolve in my pick as Detroit as the Eastern Conference champs. Even though they faced a number of situations in games where things looked dark, where it would have been easy to just pack it in and take the L, they stayed calm, level-headed, and pulled out the win. The mark of a true gelled, talented, professional team.

My pick: Celtics (3) loose to Pacers (6) in 6.
Results: ??? Game 7 is tonight. Personally, I think the Pacers will win this one. Regardless who wins tonight, though, I think they'll lose to the Pistons in 5 or 6.

My pick: Chicago (4) loses to the Wizards (5) in 6.
Results: Chicago (4) loses to the Wizards (5) in 6. Called this one perfectly. Chicago jumped out to a 2-0 lead in the series, but the Wizards hung tough and came back to win the next four straight, hanging on against a tough Bulls rally in Game 5 and coming from behind at the end of the game in the clinching Game 6. While this first playoff series win for the Wiz in 20-some years is great for the franchise and city, it's unfortunate that they now have to face the Heat, who I anticipate will take this series as convincingly as they did the first, winning in 4 or 5.

Western Conference

My pick: Phoenix (1) beats Memphis (8) in 4.
Results: Phoenix (1) beats Memphis (8) in 4. No surprises here.

My pick: San Antonio (2) loses to Denver (7) in 6.
Results: San Antonio (2) beats Denver (7) in 5. This was, admittedly, my “risky” guess, and I was giddy to see Denver win Game 1. But then the Spurs regrouped and showed their mettle. They are a veteran team used to the playoffs, and I anticipate they'll get past the Sonics without too much difficulty, winning in 5 or 6.

My pick: Seattle (3) beats Sacramento (6) in 6.
Results: Seattle (3) beats Sacramento (6) in 5.

My pick: Dallas (4) beats Houston (5) in 5.
Results: ??? Game 7 is tonight in Dallas. The Rockets played a lot better than I had expected, in large part thanks to McGrady playing off the hook, and a phenomenal Game 2 from Yao. My guess is that the Mavs pull out the W tonight unless McGrady has an insane game or Yao returns to his Game 2 form. This series has been one of the most interesting - exciting games, high scores, and Van Gundgygate, with Houston Coach Van Gundy getting a historic $100,000 fine and further threats from Commish Stern.

Depending on how tonight's two Game 7s turn out, I could be 7/8 for the first round, with my only incorrect pick my most risky.

Looking forward to the next round, I think the most exciting series will be the Suns v. Houston/Dallas, while the other series won't be too exciting. However, both Conference Finals ought to be amazing, assuming it's the Suns/Spurs and Heat/Pistons as it appears it will be. If those four teams make it to the Conference Finals, the NBA Finals are going to be great, no matter who makes it.

My Playoff Predictions

Scott — Fri, 22 Apr 2005 18:58:00 GMT

The NBA playoffs get underway tomorrow, so I best be making my picks. Before I do, though, let's look back at my, accurately dubbed, “insanely inaccurate” picks at the beginning of the season. Out of the east I thought the conference would shake out like so:

Detroit
Pacers
Heat
76ers
Bucks
Cavs
Nets
Knicks

Personally I think those picks weren't too bad. Who could have guessed the Bulls of all teams would have had the season they've had, or the Wizards for that matter? Or that the Cavs would self-implode? Or that an in-stands brawl would knock out one of Indiana's top players for the season (Artest) and their premier center (O'Neal) for a month?

In the West I did a bit worse, IMO. Here's how I envisioned the season would shake out:

Spurs
T-Wolves
Kings
Rockets
Nuggets
Mavs
Lakers
Jazz

Regardless, though, I don't think these picks were too far astray. The Lakers should have made the postseason, and who knows how the Jazz would have fared with AK, a productive Boozer, and a content Arroyo? And the T-Wolves surely disappointed.

I guess what's most disappointing is that all my picks were safe. I didn't roll the dice on a team like the Bulls, Sonics, or Wizards breaking out. I didn't have the foresight to see that young and gun + a true point guard would have equalled excitement and Ws in Phoenix. Eh, so it goes.

Without further adeu, here are my picks for the playoffs:

Eastern Conference

Round 1
Miami (1) beats New Jersey (8) - New Jersey is playing well now, but Miami is a better team. There will be matchup problems on both ends - the Heat have no answer for VC, the Nets no answer for Shaq. Miami in 6

Detroit (2) beats the 76ers (7) - Detroit is going to cruise through this series. They ended the season hot and are ready to repeat as NBA champs. Detroit in 5.

Celtics (3) lose to the Pacers (6) - will be a tough fight, especially with O'Neal not being 100%. I think the series could go either way, but I'd rather put my money on a team I think has more consistency. Pacers in 6.

Chicago (4) loses to the Wizards (5) - the Bulls have been hurt with Curry and Deng injuries. Bummer. Plus, team is too young. If Krause keeps the nucleus together, this team will be back here next year and will be better/smarter. Wizards in 6.

Round 2
(1) Miami beats the Wizards (5) - Miami is a better team than these Wizards. More postseason experience, too. Miami in 4.

(2) Detroit beats the Pacers (6) - Detroit is the team to beat in the postseason. They are on a roll, have a healthy roster, and will manhandle the Pacers (or the Celtics, if they make it). Detroit in 5.

Round 3
(1) Miami loses to Detroit (2) - Personally, I'd like to see Shaq make it to the Finals (again), but I think the Heat are going to have a hard time against the Pistons. Miami limped into the postseason with a piss poor finish; Shaq is older; the Heat don't have much of a supporting cast. Compare that to Detroit, which has a deeper team, the experience/swagger of being the NBA champs, and is on quite the roll. Pacers in 6.

Western Conference

Round 1
(1) Phoenix beats Memphis (8) - Phoenix is red hot, the Grizz are ice cold. Memphis hasn't won a playoff game in its team's history yet, and it ain't gonna happen this season, either. Suns in 4.

(2) San Antonio loses to Denver (7) - This is my “risky“ guess here, rollin' the dice.... Denver is the last team the Spurs want to face, and they'll provide a great challenge. I think that the Spurs are better than the Nuggets and have more experience, but the Spurs have a track record of folding in the playoffs in the past... Denver in 7.

(3) Seattle beats Sacramento (6) - Peja is hurt; the Sonics have been in a slump. Prediction: this playoff series will not be nearly as exciting as it could be if both teams were playing top-notch, light-'em-up basketball. Sonics win in 6.

(4) Dallas beats Houston (5) - Dallas is playing well and the Rockets are still waiting for Yao to become a true franchise player (although I doubt he ever will). Dallas in 5.

Round 2
(1) Phoenix beats Dallas (4) - This is likely to be one of the most exciting and fun series to watch - two offensively minded teams going at one another on one end of the court (but not really the other). Plus this series will have the extra drama of Nash's chance to show Cubes what's up. Should be a close and fun series, but the Suns are a more talented, younger, and exciting team. Suns in 6.

(3) Seattle loses to Denver (7) - bouyed with their win over the Spurs, an energetic Denver will take it to Seattle, winning the series in 6.

Round 3
(1) Phoenix beats Denver (7) - this will be a good series, but not quite the Spurs/Suns series everyone was itching to see. The Nuggets will get frustrated by early Suns wins and pack it up and go home. Suns in 5.

NBA Finals

Phoenix loses to Detroit - we have a repeat, ladies and gentlemen. If this matchup comes to fruition, I don't care who wins - it's bound to be one helluva exciting and entertaining series.