Lakers News and Commentary : Los Angeles Lakers, Miami Heat

Compelling Plotlines for the 2010-2011 NBA Season

Scott Mitchell — Fri, 22 Oct 2010 23:30:30 GMT

The NBA regular season starts this coming Tuesday with an epic opener – the Boston Celtics playing the new Miami Heat! And later that night, the Lakers take on the Houston Rockets to open their season.

With LeBron’s “decision,” the Lakers coming off back-to-back titles, Kevin Durant’s scoring title and emergence as, perhaps, one of the best players in the league, it’s going to be an exciting and interesting season. Here are five plotlines I can’t wait to see unfold:

How will the Lakers fare? The Lakers are predicted by many to be the favorite team in the West, and for good reason. The Lakers have been to the Finals three straight years in a row, winning the last two. They have a savvy group of battle tested veterans and an intensely fierce and competitive leader in Kobe Bryant. But let’s not forget, the Lakers are another year older; Kobe is 32, but has extended miles on his legs due to entering the League at 18 and playing deep into the postseason most years. Speaking of “old legs,” Andrew Bynum will miss a fair part of the beginning of the season after knee surgery. On top of that, the depth and overall strength of the Western Conference has improved since last year. I think it’s safe to say the Lakers will start out slow, but hopefully they will hit their stride by January and be able to lock up a 2nd or 3rd seat for the Western Conference playoffs.
How many points will Kevin Durant score each night? Last year Kevin Durant, at 21, became the youngest player ever to win the NBA scoring title, averaging 30.1 ppg. Durant’s 30.1 edged out LeBron by just 0.4 ppg. This year, I think Durant wins the scoring title again by a wide margin. Westbrook has improved markedly, the Thunder have another year of experience under their belt, and his closest competitor last year (LeBron) will not score as much this year now that he’s in Miami and will be playing a more complementary role. I’m betting Durant will average north of 31 ppg this season – should be a blast to watch!
Who will be the beast from the East? The Eastern Conference has, arguably, three of the best (if not the best) teams in the League – the Heat, Celtics, and Magic. Each time these teams meet in the regular season will be a battle. Will any of the three emerge as a dominant team, or will each of these teams have an equal shot of winning the Eastern Conference title?
How will the “losers” of the LeBron Decision fare? When LeBron decided to take his talents to South Beach, he left two serious contenders for the LeBron Sweepstakes out cold – the Chicago Bulls and New York Knicks. These teams each made some big signings in the off-season – the Bulls landing Carlos Boozer, who I think will complement Noah and Rose exceptionally well, and the Knicks landing Amare Stoudemire (and, perhaps later this season, Carmelo Anthony, if Carmelo has his way). Will either of these teams be serious contenders, or will they just be battling it out for the rights to lose to Miami, Boston, or Orlando in the first round of the playoffs?
How Dominant will the LeBron/Wade/Bosh Trio Become? Have we ever seen two of the three best players in the League on the same team before? Can this newly assembled team gel quickly enough to make a serious run to the Finals? How many games can we expect to see the Heat win this year? (I’m guessing around 65. There’s no way they’re winning more than 70.) This should be the most exciting subplot of the season, and it all starts this coming Tuesday when the Heat welcome the Celtics!

Four days and counting… Let’s go Lakers!

2008-2009 Playoff Predictions

Scott Mitchell — Fri, 17 Apr 2009 15:07:00 GMT

Each year I post my (insanely inaccurate) playoff predictions prior to the start of the postseason. I some rare circumstances my picks are spot on - such as my prediction last year of a Lakers / Celtics Finals with the Celtics winning in 6 - but most of the time my guesses are horrific and gum up my entire bracket (such as last year's pick of the Wizards beating the Cavs in Round 1... whoops) or are just so divorced from reality, as in the case of picking that the Celtics would sweep the Hawks in Round 1. This year I didn't have as much time to pontificate on my playoff picks because the Western Conference seedings weren't finalized until the last day of the regular season. With such a tight bunching between the 2nd and 8th-seeded teams, every game this regular season mattered. From Chris Tomasson in Nuggets Can Thank Papovich for No. 2 Seed:

In San Antonio, they remember the Alamo. They also might remember Feb. 3. That was the night Spurs coach Gregg Popovich rested most of his top players against the Nuggets at the Pepsi Center. Playing the second game of a back-to-back situation after winning the previous night at Golden State, Popovich didn’t use Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili or Michael Finley. Although Ginobili had gotten hurt the night before, Popovich gave no concrete reason for resting the others.
The Spurs J.V. team battled well. But they fell 104-96 to assure that Denver won the season series 2-1. Well, guess what? The Spurs and the Nuggets both finished the season 54-28, with Denver, due to the tiebreaker, getting the No. 2 seed in the West and San Antonio settling for No. 3. Had Popovich used his top players that night and the Spurs won, San Antonio would be the No. 2 seed and would be in line for homecourt advantage for the first two rounds of the playoffs. Of course, an extra loss would have meant the Nuggets would have finished the season 53-29. That would have resulted in them losing the Northwest Division to Portland (54-28) and losing a tiebreaker to Houston (53-29) for the No. 4 seed.

Let's get started with this year's picks! I've put the winning team name from each series in bold.

Eastern Conference

Round 1
(1) Cleveland beats (8) Detroit - The Pistons have had a disappointing season marred by a disastrous trade. Cleveland and LeBron have been unstoppable, netting the league's best record with only two loses on their home court all year. Cleveland will win this series easily in 5. I forsee the Cavs being up 3-0 when the Pistons win a meaningless Game 4, only to have the Cavs dominantly close the series in Game 5 back in Cleveland (although a four game sweep wouldn't surprise me in the least).

(4) Atlanta loses to (5) Miami - D-Wade is a beast and here's the scary part - he could have been a Detroit Piston! I've mentioned this before many times, but we, as a society, can never forget - the Pistons took Darko as their #2 pick in the draft over D-Wade, Carmelo Anthony, and Chris Bosh. Ok, I feel better now. I see Wade putting forth a Herculean effort that cannot be stopped or matched by the Hawks. Heat in 6.

(3) Orlando beats (6) Philly - While Orlando has slipped a bit in the last bit of the season, they're in a perfect position now. They won't have to worry about the Cavs until the Conference Finals and they'd face a depleted Celtics team in Round 2. Philly will be a road bump for the Magic, who will win in 5.

(2) Boston over (7) Chicago - First, the bad news: Celtics Coach Doc Rivers announced that, after sitting out several games late in the regular season, Garnett will likely be out for the entire playoffs with a bum knee. While the Celtics have won the vast majority of their games during Garnett's absenses this season, one wonders how they will fare in the playoffs without the services of their emotional leader. This first round should be a good test as Chicago is the team that poses the greatest threat to any of the top-seeded teams in the first round. However, I don't think the Bulls have any real chance here - they're still too young and too inexperienced. There will be some interesting and close games, but the Celtics will prevail in 6.

Round 2
(1) Cleveland beats (5) Miami - Another walk in the park for the Cavs. I expect Wade will have at least one phenomenal game that overwhelms the Cavs - and the Heat have had a resounding win against the Cavs in Miami this year - but this series will serve as an appetizer for the main course - the Eastern Conference Finals! Cleveland in 5.

(2) Boston beats (3) Orlando - The Celtics are missing Garnett, they're old and tired from a six game series with the Bulls. The Magic are young and hungry and rested. It will be a good series with a couple of close games, but the Celtics experience and mettle will see them into the ECF. Celtics in 6, possibly 7.

Round 3
(1) Cleveland beats (2) Boston - The Cavs have everything in their favor going into the ECF - two "easy" Rounds, a very hungry and motivated LeBron, and a depleted Celtics squad firmly between their sights. The Celtics will have enough juice left in them to win one game at home, but the Cavs will overwhelm them in this series, winning in 5.

Western Conference

Round 1
(1) Los Angeles beats (8) Utah - The Lakers are the favored team in the West; the Jazz have been struggling late and have questions around the health of their star forward, Carlos Boozer. The Lakers bested the Jazz earlier this week. Things are not looking up for the Jazz. Even Jazz Coach Jerry Sloan admitted things are pretty bleak in Utah. While most analysts have written off the Jazz, I think they're going to give the Lakers two or three tough games, winning one or two. The Lakers have this series in the books barring any freak injuries, but the Lakers will have a couple of rough patches, especially seeing as how they are a team whose attention and energy is not always tightly focused. Lakers in 5, maybe 6.

(4) Portland beats (5) Houston - Portland is young, hungry, and talented. Houston is still struggling to get out of the first round of the playoffs this decade. I think this will be a heck of a series with some memorable games, but in the end I think Portland's youth and home court advantage will give them the series in 7.

(3) San Antonio beats (6) Dallas - The Spurs are old and without Manu, and Duncan's knees have started to deteriorate on him, but they still are the Spurs, they still know how to win in the postseason, and they still have a great coach in Popavich. The Mavericks biggest problem is their lack of defensive intensity and their inability to stop fast guards, like Tony Parker. There may be a close game or two in this series, but I see the Spurs pulling through without much ado, and winning in 5 or 6.

(2) Denver loses to (7) New Orleans - The Hornets are beat up and the Nuggets have home court advantage, but I think that if there is going to be one upset in the first round, this series will be it. Denver always seems one boneheaded play or emotional outburst away from a full-fledged breakdown, and Denver's stars have never seemed as hungry as the likes of Chris Paul. Granted, the Nuggets have the Hornets beat on talent, but I think last year's push into the second round and their hunger will give the Hornets the edge and the ability to best the Nuggets in a tight 7 game series.

Round 2
(1) Los Angeles beats (4) Portland - This should be a great matchup. Two fun teams who will bring a lot of energy and excitement to the floor. The Blazers will have an exciting win or two, but I see the Lakers winning this series in 5 or 6. The difference comes down to postseason experience. There will be a few key plays in key games that the Lakers will capitalize on and that will be the difference.

(3) San Antonio beats (7) New Orleans - This year's rematch of last year's WCSFs series will be just as exciting and will have the same outcome - Spurs in 7.

Round 3

(1) Los Angeles beat (3) San Antonio - The Lakers are too fast and too deep, too young and too hungry. The Spurs are too old, without Manu, and worn from a longer and more depleting Round 1 and Round 2. Much like last year's WCF, the Lakers will blow by the Spurs, winning in 5.

NBA Finals

(1) Cleveland loses to (1) Los Angeles - The Lakers have had the Cavs number this season, winning both games against the Cavs and handing Cleveland their first home loss (and only home loss until the last game of the season). The Lakers are hungrier, too, having gotten to the Finals last year, but losing in 6. This year, with a healthy Bynum, with Phil gunning for 10 rings, and Kobe needing a ring to cement his legacy and to prove that he can win without Shaq, the Lakers will take this series in convincing fashion, winning in 6 and being crowned the world champions!

First Look at New Miami Heat Lineup

Scott Mitchell — Sun, 10 Feb 2008 23:25:00 GMT

Today the Los Angeles Lakers and Miami Heat squared off in South Beach and on national TV, with the Lakers winning the contest 104-94. Today's game was the first for Shawn Marion and Marcus Banks since they were traded to the Miami Heat for Shaq. For some reason, ABC loves scheduling the Heat on national games, so I've been able to see the Heat play more times than I care. With Shaq and Mourning as their lumbering centers, the Heat have traditionally been a half-court set offense, a team that walks the ball up after a basket or turnover, sets up, and then runs the offense through Dwayne Wade.

With Shaq out of the picture, and with the addition of the incredibly athletic Shawn Marion, the Heat have a new style of play about them, as evidenced by this afternoon's game. There were many fast breaks, a lot of quick passes, a lot of cuts to the hoop. The Heat came out running, gunning, and scoring, and played competitive basketball through the first half of the game. But in order for a run and gun offense to work properly, the team needs to be in tip top shape. In the second half, the Heat's pace slowed, their D softened, and the amassed a double-digit deficit heading late into the 4th quarter.

This was the first "fun" game to watch the Miami Heat play since the 2006 playoffs, when D-Wade was breaking ankles. It was great to see this level of play, but it leaves me wondering what to expect in the future. There's no way the Heat can dig themselves out of this 9-40 hole to make the playoffs this year, and Marion's contract ends this year (and Wade's ends the year following that). This should be an interesting off-season for the Heat and its fans.

Midway Through the First Round...

Scott — Sat, 28 Apr 2007 19:18:00 GMT

We're nearing the midway point of the first round of the NBA playoffs... let's see how my predictions are faring.

Let's start with the East...

I picked Detroit to sweep Orlando, and they did that this afternoon.
I predicted that the Cavs would sweep the Wizards, and they are playing right now with the Cavs looking to go up 3-0 in the series and well on track for a four game sweep.
My Miami-Chicago series pick put the Bulls winning in 7, although with their current 3-0 series lead and Miami's lucklaster play, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Heat swept. Nor would I be surprised if they won Game 4 only to lose back in Chicago in Game 5. Of course, technically the series is not yet over, but I find it hard to imagine that this Heat team has the resolve to battle back from a three game deficit.
Finally, the Nets-Raptors are keeping it interesting, as I suspected. The Nets currently hold a 2-1 lead after dispatching a thorough butt-kicking last night. I still like the Nets in 6.

Moving to the Western Conference...

Despite the Mavs having lost all three regular season games against the Warriors, and casting aside the Warriors's strong end to the regular season, I picked the Mavs in 4. After last night's W, the Warriors lead the series 2-1. Whoops. I honestly expected the Mavs to play better ball, to not get out-run by the Warriors. I still do think the Mavs will win as they're the better team and the Warriors's style of play is usual inconsistent. Regardless, this is going to be a series the Mavs are going to have to work hard for.
I picked Houston beating the Jazz in five, and I'll stick with that prediction. The Rockets currently lead the series 2-1 with Game 4 tonight in Utah.
I predicted that the Suns would best the Lakers in five, as well. After a rather improbible win on Thursday, the Lakers trail the Suns two games to one with Game 4 in LA on Sunday. I expect the Suns to resume their dominant form tomorrow and win comfortably, then return to Phoenix and close the series out.
Lastly, I picked the Spurs in 6. This series is the slowest moving of the eight, with only two games played in total thus far (although they do play later tonight). The series is knotted at one game apiece and heading to Denver. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Spurs take Game 3, then Nuggets Game 4, and then the Spurs Games 5 and 6.

2006-2007 Playoff Predictions

Scott — Thu, 19 Apr 2007 12:55:00 GMT

Each year I post my playoff predictions before the start of the playoffs, from the first round through the Finals. In last year's predictions I mistakenly picked the Pistons besting the Heat and the Spurs beating the Mavs, resulting in a Spurs-Pistons rematch with the Spurs taking the title again. Whoops.

Let's get started with this year's picks! I've put the winning team name from each series in bold.

Eastern Conference

Round 1
(1) Detroit beats (8) Orlando - Orlando has lost all four games to Detroit this season, which does not bode well for them in the playoffs. Also, Detroit is a much deeper and experienced team. Detroit in 4.

(4) Miami loses to (5) Chicago - While a lot of analysts are picking Miami to make it back to the Finals, I think they are going to have a hard time with D-Wade's injured shoulder and an older and slower Shaq. Last year the Bulls gave the Heat a fit in the playoffs, and that was before picking up big Ben Wallace. The Heat clearly have the experience, but I'll go with the younger, hungrier team in a fiercely fought series. Bulls in 7.

(2) Cleveland beats (7) Washington - No Caron Butler and no Gilbert Arenas makes this series as exciting as watching paint dry. The Wizard's record in April is 3 wins to 11 loses. Cavs in 4.

(3) Toronto loses to (6) New Jersey - Toronto has a promising future, but at this stage in the game they are too young and inexperienced to beat a veteran team in a best of seven series. There will be some close and exciting games, but in the end the Nets will clinch this series in 6.

Conference Semi-Finals (Round 2)
(1) Detroit beats (6) New Jersey - two teams with experienced, veteran teams promises to make this series an exciting one. If, by excitement, you mean watching games where the cumulative score fails to break 160. Regardless, many of these games will come down to final defensive stands. It will be a good series, but the Pistons will take it in 6.

(2) Cleveland beats (5) Chicago - after having a the equivalent of a week off in playing the depleted Wizards, the Cavs will be rested and out-play the Bulls on both ends of the court. However, the Bulls will stay in this series and make it interesting, taking it to a dramatic game 7.

Conference Finals (Round 3)
(1) Detroit beats (2) Cleveland - this game will bring back the ECSF excitement from last year, when the Cavs took the Pistons to Game 7, and I see this series going the distance, as well. And just like last year's series, I expect Game 7 to be a ho-hum experience with the Pistons controlling the game. Pistons in 7.

Western Conference

Round 1
(1) Dallas beats (8) Golden State - Yeah, the Warriors have a 3-0 regular season record against the Mavs, but I expect the real Mavs to show up and play with a vengence. The Mavs have had a sole goal this year - to get back to and win the Finals. I assure you that the Warriors will not hinder their quest. Dallas in 4.

(4) Utah loses to (5) Houston - the Rockets are rolling and Yao and T-Mac are healthy and are ready to silence their critics. Of course, winning this series wins you an invitation to get stomped by Dallas. Houston in 5.

(3) San Antonio beats (6) Denver - the West is home to the three best teams in the League, with the Spurs being one of them. They are well-coached, experienced, and have a strong front court and back court with better than average role players. Despite Denver's dynamic duo of Iverson and Anthony, the Spurs will win this series in six and the series won't be as close as some might expect.

(2) Phoenix beats (7) Los Angeles Lakers - while the Lakers/Suns series from last year went 7 and was full of exciting moments, don't expect this year's matchup to be nearly as exciting. The Suns are stronger this year with a healthy Amare, and are motivated to get to the Finals in as few games as possible. Also, the Lakers are entering the playoffs with a pretty miserable final month and are lucky to hold on to the 7 seed. While Kobe's raw talent may lead the Lakers to a victory (or two), the Suns will make mincemeat of the Lakers this postseason. Suns in 5.

Western Conference Semi-Finals (Round 2)
(1) Dallas beats (5) Houston - another brick in the wall for Dallas on their way to the NBA Finals. Dallas in 5 in a one-sided series.

(2) Phoenix beats (3) San Antonio - except for the WCF, this will be the best series of the entire playoffs. The games will be tight, competitive, and high-scoring. Nash will dazzle with his passes, Amare will explode to the basket, and Duncan will hit big shot after big shot, showing little to no emotion. This will be a roller coaster series with the Suns winning at home in Game 7.

Western Conference Finals (Round 3)
(1) Dallas beats (2) Phoenix - this will be a series for the ages, one where you will want to watch every game. And in the end, the depth of the Mavs bench will be the deciding factor, as the Suns run out of gas late down the stretch. Mavs in 7.

NBA Finals
Dallas beats Detroit - Dallas is the best team in the League this year and will rightfully win the title. The series will have its share of blowout games, but will also have one or two exciting ones. I see the Mavs winning in 5, capped by Mark Cuban running onto the court and acting like an excited fan rather than a stiff owner, which is appreciated by this blogger.

We've Got Ourselves Some Series!

Scott — Sun, 30 Apr 2006 17:07:00 GMT

I didn't think there'd be too much drama in the first round of the playoffs this year, but we certainly have some interesting series! The Bulls just knotted up their series with the Heat at two games apiece, the Pacers are giving the Nets a run for their money, and the Lakers are amazingly playing their best team basketball all season, and not a minute too soon. In fact, the Mavs are the only team who are enjoying a 3-0 lead (both Detroit and San Anontio lost the third game in their series).

Friday night's games were also a blast, with LeBron taking his team on the back and netting 41 points, including a last minute shot to take the lead with a few seconds left in the game. And the Kings beat the Spurs with a game ending, coast-to-coast layup. (And that Lakers/Suns game wasn't too shaby, either.)

As NBA fans we've really been blessed over the past few years, since the Eastern and Western Conferences achieved parity. Those who were watching the NBA back in the first half of this decade no doubt recall the overwhelming dominance of the Western Conference. While the Eastern Conference still lacks the talent depth found in the West, it's no longer fair to call it the Leastern Conference.

No Big Surprises in the Playoffs...

Scott — Thu, 27 Apr 2006 01:15:00 GMT

No big surprises after the first couple of games in the playoffs. The "Contenders" - San Antonio, Detroit, Miami, and Dallas - all hold 2-0 leads. Some people pegged the Bulls or Grizz as the surprise teams, and while 2-0 isn't the same as 4-0, I can't fathom any of the "Contenders" dropping four of the next five games.

Also, as I predicted, the Clippers are playing well despite their year end malaise. And the Suns/Lakers series is seeming to get more interesting, with a close game on Sunday and the Lakers up by 15 at half time. Going back to LA with the series knotted at 1-1 it vital if the Lakers hope in winning this series. Regardless of their half time lead and the possibility of a tied series, I don't see the Lakers winning this one, as the Suns have too much offensive firepower. Unless the Lakers can have monumental games from Odom and Kawme, they're going to have a hard time making it to the WCSF.

And what of the Pacers/Nets and Cavs/Wiz series? Those are shaping up nicely, too. Indy got a lucky win on Sunday, which will probably be their only one of the series. The Cavs/Wiz, I predict, will go 6 or 7, with the Wiz prevailing (only to get smacked around by Detroit).

The great games will commence in the Semi Finals... Dallas v. San Antonio being the premier matchup. And of course the conference finals promise to be delightfully entertaining as well.

2005-2006 Playoff Predictions

Scott — Thu, 20 Apr 2006 12:54:00 GMT

Time for this year's insanely inaccurate playoff predictions! But before we begin, let's review my oracle skills from last season, when I made my 2004-2005 playoff predictions. My Eastern Conference picks were nearly perfect. I ended up picking all of the first round winners and did predict the Pistons besting the Heat in the ECF. In the West, however, I took a beating as I ignorantly guessed that Denver would upset the Spurs.... which kind of ruined the whole Western Conference (although I did predict the Suns making it to the WCF). This year I'm going to put a little more faith in the Spurs!

Let's get started!

Eastern Conference

Round 1
(1) Detroit beats (8) Milwaukee - Milwaukee has the least envious position of having to face the winningest, most veteran and poised team in the NBA. Barring Chauncey and Rip running into each other leading to season-ending injuries, followed up by Ben Wallace running over to see if his team mates are all right and colliding with Rasheed, ending both of their seasons, I don't see how the Bucks can win four games out of seven against this team. In fact, I'm thinking.... sweep!

(4) Cleveland loses to (5) Washington - Washington has a bit more playoff experience and while LeBron is a man child, he's still lacks the inexperience. It's OK, BronBron, MJ didn't reach the second round of the playoffs until his fourth season.

(3) New Jersey beats (6) Indiana - With New Jersey playing on fire lately and Indiana still enjoying their descent from what could have been since the Ron Artest mele, I see this one over with in 5 with NJ dominating throughout. They'll need to win quickly, too, as Kidd could use the rest.

(2) Miami beats (7) Chicago - Don't bet against The Deisel. Yes, Shaq's another year older and another year slower, but he's still The M.D.E. Combine that with Dwayne Wade and it's hard to see this Bulls team winning more than 2 (if that).

Round 2
(1) Detroit beats (5) Washington - More of the same from the Pistons (assuming no injuries), besting the Wizards in 5.

(2) Miami beats (3) New Jersey - While the Heat are a bit banged up and in a bit of a funk, and while the Nets are playing the best ball all season, I still think the Heat have more options and can beat teams in more ways. This assumes that Shaq is able to ratchet it up a notch and Wade is 100%. This should probably be a very interesting series, but I think the Heat will take it in 6.

Round 3
(1) Detroit beats (2) Miami - A rematch of last year's ECFs. However this time the series isn't nearly as close and the Pistons win in 6. Pat Reilly proceeds to detonate the Heat roster once again in the off-season.

Western Conference

Round 1
(1) San Antonio beats (8) Sacramento - while the Spurs aren't completely healthy, they are the defending NBA champs and have a solid roster of veterans and play makers. I've learned my lesson from last year - do not doubt the Spurs!

(4) Dallas over Memphis (5) - It's a shame that Dallas is seeded fourth (as Mark Cuban will happily tell you), but no one will regret that more than the Grizz, who have yet to win a playoff series in the franchise history and aren't going to start now. The big question for Mavs fans - will Dirk show up this postseason? He'll need to if the Mavs have any hope of reaching the WCF or beyond.

(6) LA Clippers over (3) Denver - this is one of my two “upset” picks. While the Clippers have been playing lackluster basketball the last few weeks of the season, it would be nice to see them actually have some impact in the postseason for the first time in a loooooooooong time. Should be a good series. Keep on eye on Cassell and his leadership. Clippers in 7.

(2) Phoenix over (7) LA Lakers - even though the Lakers bested the Suns in the final season meeting, that final game was sans Steve Nash and included 43 from Kobe. With Nash, the Suns won the other three games against the Lakers this season. I expect Kobe will have two (or three?) big games in this series, which should be fun to watch, but I can't fathom the Lakers winning four out of seven. Phoenix in 5, unless Kobe has multiple Herculean efforts, in which case Suns in 6.

Round 2
(1) San Antonio over (4) Dallas - this is the hardest matchup to predict, in my opinion, and will likely be one of the best to watch. I have to give the edge to the defending champs here, since Dirk has yet to prove himself able to step it up in the playoffs. Last year there was a lot of finger-pointing when the Ls started to pile up. This year the Mavs will need to put any dissent behind them and learn to prosper as a team. And Dirk will have to be able to say, “Give me the ball,“ in crunch time and, more importantly, make the big play.

(2) Phoenix loses to (6) LA Clippers - here's the other “upset” pick, another risky guess. Regardless of the eventual winner, I think this is a series that goes six games, minimum. I pick the Clips, in part, because I'm hoping to see a ray of sunlight into the otherwise dreary lives of Clippers fans.

Round 3
(1) San Antonio over (6) LA Clippers - after a brutal WCSF series against the Mavs, the Spurs will have it easy against the Clippers, out playing them with ease and winning in 5.

NBA Finals

Detroit beats San Antonio in 7 - another great Finals matchup. Like last year, there will be some blowout games, but the series will go 6, if not 7, and have a fair mix of down-to-the-wire games, with the Pistrons (if they can stay healthy!) taking the title back from the Spurs.

What's in Store for the Heat?

Scott — Sun, 11 Sep 2005 02:10:00 GMT

One thing that's always seemed a little foreign to me was the concept of people who rooted for a team rather than its players. That is, most sports fans are fans of a team... say the Los Angeles Clippers. Now a person who roots for the Clippers would describe himself as a Clippers fan. It doesn't matter how the roster changes over time, our hypothetical fan is a fan of the team. Should Sterling trade away Brand, it doesn't matter to our fan - he's all about the team.

I guess this makes sense - most people grow up in a town or live their entire lives in a town and consider that town “theirs” in a sense. Too, with the realities of sports and business today, it's quite rare for a player to play his entire career with one team, let alone a major portion of his career. But I've never been a team fan. Perhaps it's because I grew up in Chicago, but then moved to podunk Missouri, and then to SoCal. Maybe I'm a fan of the players because I grew up watching Michael Jordan and crew, and idolized them and not the Bulls, per se.

In any event, I admit it - I'm a player fan. This explains why I started a blog about the Lakers: they had the players I liked watching:

Shaq
Kobe
Phil Jackson (through 2004)
Ron Harper (back in 2000)
Robert Horry (through 2003)

Honestly, Shaq is probably the #2 player I've enjoyed watching since MJ. (Granted, his athleticism has greatly diminished over time, but give me the 2000-2001 Shaq, who was a freaking MONSTER underneath the basket... that's my idea of fun basketball to watch, a guy who can power through the foul and finish... watch some of those games from a few years back, Shaq was an animal... you had to double team him or he would maul his defender... freaking beautiful... not as graceful as Jordan cutting through the lane or taking over a game, or AI embarrassing a defender, breaking his knees, but pretty in a pure physical sense... the giant, crushing the mere peon that is trying to guard him...)

I always liked Shaq better than Kobe for a couple of reasons. First, when Shaq was in his prime, Kobe was still maturing. Second, Kobe always did carry himself with an aire of snobish indifference, one of those players on the court who knew he was better than everyone else and played with an attitude of, “Why am I here, why am I wasting my time with you?” Shaq, though, always seemed to be having a blast, one of those big guys in the pick-up-game world who could lower his shoulder, bowl you over for the layup, but who you joked with running back down the court. Kobe would be the pick-up player who you couldn't approach, who you wouldn't talk to because he was too serious, too into himself. At least that's how it looked watching these guys on TV. (Here's some, perhaps, specious evidence: Shaq donating time and money for the victims for hurricane Katrina; could you see Kobe loading up a van with donations? I see him more likely to be shopping for a ring for his old lady.)

So when PJ left, and when Shaq went to Miami, I started watching more Heat games than Laker games. Perhaps I should have renamed my blog. Whatever. And as I watched the Heat play I began to really enjoy the team they had, really liked watching D. Wade do his thing (amazing that the was picked after both Anthony and Darko in the draft), liked watching Damon Jones rain threes, liked watching Shaq be Shaq (albeit and older, slower Shaq, but still one that could morph a game when the opponents lacked a strong frontcourt). All in all, I watched many more Heat games than Laker games last year.

But this year I am not as excited about the Heat. Yes, Shaq's still there; ditto D. Wayde. But now they've brought in a bunch of offensive weapons. And they're still clamoring for more! (Shaq's reportedly wanting to get Gary Payton on board...... not a bad idea, maybe six years ago.) Shaq, didn't you learn anything from the Lakers “Future All Start gang” run? Granted, you got to the Finals, but barely. It took Fisher's 0.4 second miracle to get there, and you did get embarrassed in five by the underdogs. (Yeah, yeah, Karl Malone was hurt, but still... Detroit's frontcourt was too much for old man Malone and an aging Shaq... see the 2005 ECF for more evidence on that... and, IMO, the success the Lakers had that year was due in large part to P. Jackson's expertise... is Stan Van Gundy up to the challenge, or is Riles going to throw him under the bus?) Look at Detroit. Look at San Antonio. Those championship calibre teams are showing how you get to the promise land - you build a core nucleus of selfless, talented vets who know their place and you only add role players. Guys who are happy to come off the bench. Proven vets who have playoff experience. Wily, older guys, who want a ring moreso than playing time.

I'm not blaming Shaq for the Heat's moves this offseason - he's just a cog in the machine, it's Riley and crew that are calling the shots. What are they thinking? Stupid question, I know what they're thinking: Win a ring at any cost. They came so close last season, Game 7, one W away from the Finals, but no dice. But now is not the time to revamp the lineup! Now is the time to add role players! (I've said this before.) Ok, ok, swapping out Eddie Jones for Poise is an Ok trade, I think, but for Walker, a selfish, shot-happy guy who, despite his size, has the inside presense that I do (at 5'9”, 155 lbs.)? And what about losing Damon Jones? That happened solely because you created a glut at the guard position, thereby calling into question his PT. Plus, it wouldn't have hurt to throw a few bucks his way, he is grossly underpaid.

But no. Goodbye Damon Jones. Goodbye Eddie Jones. Goodbye Keyon Dooling. Goodbye Rasul Butler. Granted, it's not like they were giving up Wade or Shaq, but Jones & Jones were part of the nucleus, and now they are gone, serving as competent role players for some other team... rich with playoff experience that is few and far between in this League. Drag.

Ok, enough rambling, this post has gotten long enough. I just worry that the Heat, despite their offensive firepower, are going to suck eggs this season. My hope is that they return to becoming one of the premier teams; my hope is that they are mentioned up there with the Spurs, Pistons, and Pacers each week. That's my hope, but I fear reality will spell out a different fate. We shall see..................

Brian Grant Released from the Lakers

Scott — Thu, 11 Aug 2005 02:16:00 GMT

Bye bye, Mr. Grant. The Lakers released forward Brian Grant today using the new amnesty clause agreed to in the collective bargaining agreement. This means that they'll still have to pay the remaining $29+ million dollars on Grant's contract, but that bill won't be counted against the team come luxury tax time.

From the article: Grant “averaged a career-low 3.8 points and 3.7 rebounds last season while bothered by chronic tendinitis in his knees. He also had a neck injury in training camp and spent a month on the injured list because of the tendinitis.” Grant, as you'll recall, was brought over to the Lakers in last summer's blockbuster trade, sending Shaq to Miami in exchange for Butler, Grant, and Odom. I wonder if Dr. Buss ever wishes he could take back the trade.

I mean, when you look at it, Dr. Buss was faced with the following pros and cons for trading Shaq:

Pros:

Shaq's monster contract
Shaq's age / out-of-shapedness
Kobe is younger / more athletic / has more high-caliber years ahead of him
Three decent players in Grant, Odom, and Butler

Cons:

Trading the self-professed Most Dominant Ever player.
'Betting' the franchise on an egotistical, talented youngster who still was facing a civil rape suit.

With a couple of the pros being nixed in the end - Shaq working himself into shape for this last season; Shaq taking a pay cut this offseason; Grant's injuries/lackluster season; trading Butler for (ick) Kwame Brown - well, it makes you wonder if it was still in Buss's best interest to pull the trigger on that trade last offseason. Granted, I'm not really looking long term - Kobe will still be raking in the revenues for the Lakers five years from now while Shaq will be solving crimes and downing boxes of Krispy Kremes. But, shit, the Heat were at the door of last year's NBA Finals while the Lakers... well, they were honoring the Purple and Gold tradition by having a worse record than the Clippers (and tied with the Golden State Warriors!!).

Oh well, it's all fantasy, really, as the Lakers likely wouldn't have fared any better this last season with Shaq and without Kobe than the other way around, but it still hurts to see the Lakers have such an off year. Hopefully the Zen Master can get in and shake things up enough to actually get this team to the playoffs this year, although another lottery-bound season wouldn't surprise me in the least.

The Resurgence of the Eastern Conference

Scott — Fri, 22 Apr 2005 14:48:00 GMT

So it's playoff time again, and this year's playoffs look like they'll be one of the most even and exciting in quite a while. This year, IMO, has finally seen the resurgence of the East. Sure, last year we had some great teams in the East (notably Indiana & Detroit), but this year boasts even greater parity. For example, last year the worst team in the West (the Clippers) would have finished tied with Atlanta for fourth worst in the East. That is, the three worst teams in the League hailed from the East. Last year the Eastern Conference teams averaged a 37-45 record, while the West averaged the opposite: 45-37. An average West team was worth another 8 wins than an average East team.

This year, however, the lopsidedness has regressed a bit. The average East team record this season was 39-43, while the average West team was 43-39, netting a difference of only 4 games as opposed to 8. Highlighting this improvement is that fact that entry into the Eastern Conference playoffs is much more stringent this year than last. Last year the 8th seed were the lowly Boston Celtics with a 44% winning record (36-46). This year, that type of record in the East would put you tied with Orlando for the #10 spot. The #8 spot this year - New Jersey (and Cleveland, in the #9 spot) - had a +500 record at 42-40. Had the Nets had this same record last year they would have been seeded fourth. (Incidentally, the Nets' record last year was 47-35, winning them their division.)

Why the change in disparity between the East and West? Here are a couple of potential reasons:

Shaq's move to the East - with the addition of Shaq and the continued maturation of Wade, the Heat improved from 42-40 last year to 59-23 this year.
New Orlean's Move to the West - New Orleans, last year, was an Eastern Conference team, but was scuttled to the West this year as the Bobcat's took their place in the East. Stuck in a tougher division and plauged by injuries, the Hornets fell from a record of 41-41 last year to 18-64 this year - ouch! (Of course, New Orlean's overall effect on the East vs. West rankings is mitigated by their Eastern replacement's identical 18-64 record.)
The Stumbling West - a number of typically strong Western Conference teams this year sufferred records far worse than they were used to. The Lakers ended up in the bottom of their division, sporting a 34-48 post-Shaq record. The T-Wolves also stunk it up, falling from a Western Conference best record of 58-24 last year to a lottery-bound 44-38 this year. Utah, which looked to have a bright future at the start of this season, sufferred some injuries and unhappy players, landing them with the fourth worst record in the leage at 26-56. Portland was a big disappointment as well.
The Surging East - a number of craptacular teams in the East really stepped it up this year, such as the Bulls (first playoff berth since MJ left town) and Wizards. Also considering “the brawl“ and it's cost on Indiana's rotation and moral, the Pacers outshined their mid-season expectations, finishing with a respectable 44-38.

In the end, this all sums up to an exciting playoffs from both conferences.

The Playoff Picture...

Scott — Mon, 04 Apr 2005 18:19:00 GMT

When this season started, the Lakers played to people's expectations - no one expected them to dominate, but with Kobe getting his opportunity as the team captain, with the addition of skilled coach Rudy T, Lakers fans were expecting a low playoff seed with a likely early playoff exit, hopefully making it into the second round before getting bounced. The Lakers, through much of the first half of the season, played consistently well enough to hover around the 6 or 7 spot in the Western Conference rankings. But then things started coming apart. Can't say what exactly precipitated it all, but Rudy T left; Kobe was beset by some nagging injuries; the Lakers - never really playing like a team much at all this season, started playing even less like one; players showed signs of fatigues; those lucky bounces stopped.

This all sums up to a Lakers team that is now playing merely to not have the embarassment of having a worse record than the LA Clippers. (After last night's humiliating 102-82 loss to the Grizzlies - the team currently holding the West's 8th spot - the Lakers are currently a half game up over their chronoically mediocre neighbors.) So who will stink it up worse, the Lakers or Clippers? If we use history as a guide, we'd have to go with the consistently sucky Clippers, who do have a tough schedule remaining. However, the Lakers have an even tougher schedule, in my opinion. While the Clipps do face the Spurs twice, the Suns, and Houston, they also get to play the Bobcats and New Orleans twice. The Lakers, on the other hand, face Phoenix twice, Houston, Seattle, the Kings twice, the Mavs, the Warriors, and the Trailblazzers. Except for the final two meaningless games among the playoff absence, the other games are against tough teams still jockying for playoff position.

Hopefully the Lakers can improve in the offseason, but as I discussed in an earlier blog entry, I don't have much hope for the Lakers until Kobe leaves or matures, and neither of those are likely to happen anytime soon.

Moving to the Eastern Conference, if you were to have told a friend last year, “Man, I can't wait for the Bulls/Heat game,” he'd probably have you committed. But tomorrow night the Bulls and Heat, two of the top Eastern Conference teams, meet in Miami. The Bulls have won nine straight and are playing the best basketball since a number 23 suited up in red and black. Should be a great game. The rest of this regular season should be a good indication on how the Bulls will fare come playoff time - they have games against many of the teams they'll likely meet: Miami tomorrow, Orlando the day after, Detroit, Washington, and Orlando again, next week, and the recently surging Pacers to close off their season.

Of course, the regular season's performance can mean squat in the playoffs without a skilled coach. Who can forget Isaih Thomas's Pacers team that cruised through the playoffs like a bat out of hell only to stumble in the playoffs, playing well below their abilities. Hopefully, though, the Bulls make it to at least the second round, where they'll likely be bested by a superior Detroit or Miami team (depending on how the regular season shapes up).

In the playoffs I expect Miami, Detroit, the Spurs, and Phoenix to be the teams others fear to play. While Seattle had a hell of a bang to start the season, I think they've lost momentum. Couple that with their playoff inexperience and I think they'll exit sooner than most people may think. Should be a great postseason in both conferences!

Restless in LA

Scott — Fri, 25 Mar 2005 16:10:00 GMT

In my earlier blog entry that announced Kobe's decision to sign a long-term deal with the Lakers I wrote:

Today Kobe Bryant announced that he was resigning with the Lakers for a seven year deal worth over $136 million - that averages to nearly $20 per year. Bryant supposedly was listening to offers from Chicago, Denver, New York, and the Clippers, but decided to stay with the Lakers, and why not? I mean, this whole team was restructured with one thing in mind: placate Kobe. Not only have Buss and Kupcheck shipped off Shaq and given Kobe a coach who will give him the ball, but they've also payed him more than any other team could afford. Top it off with Bryant's popularity in La La land, and it doesn't make sense for him to go anywhere else.

Back before the season started a person by the name of “laker lover” posted the following comment in response to my blog entry:

i believe that it is a very good thing for kobe to be signing with the lakers now he can prove his is the best player in the leauge and most likely the BEST PLAYER OF ALL TIME move over MIKE! kobe is better. kobe will lead his team to the promise land like mike did but michael jordan was way overrated he had a supporting cast and that made him shine more than he deserved kobe had to play with shaq the biggest baby in the leauge but now kobe will once show everyone why the lakers gave him the money they did he is by far the GREATEST PLAYER to ever play the game of basketball.

A little overexuberant, especially in comparing kid Kobe to MJ, but what can you expect from someone who can't afford a keyboard with working Shift and Caps Lock keys? What prompted my to re-read this old entry of mine was a comment posted today by a fellow going by the name BD, who asks laker lover the following question:

Do you still feel the same now? Your predictions were way off. In fact, you may have just witnessed the beginning of a long decline of the Laker legacy of always being a competitive team.

I've caught the tail end of the last few Lakers games on the radio (AM 570) and the postgame radio call-in show has been slowly transmogrifying from a Kobe love fest to a “Why did we trade Shaq?” hate-a-thon. It's not too surprising, I guess. The Lakers are, after all, in a major slump and quickly careening out out of playoff contention, while the Shaq-led Heat are sitting atop the standings with the NBA's best record (52-17 at the time of this entry, facing the second best team - the Suns - tonight). Kobe's once impeccable popularity in LA has disappeared quicker than I thought possible. No one likes watching a brooding star on a hapless team, regardless of how many highlight reels that star can fill.

So what are the Lakers to do, short of inventing a time machine, turning back time, and undoing the Shaq trade? Trade Kobe? Not in a million years, that would be like Philly trading AI or the Raptors trading VC. (OK, bad example, but it tooks years of Carter bitching, sitting out hurt, and acting like a cancer on his team before he did get traded.) These are marquee players that bring in revenue. And dollars trump wins, egos, and drama in this league - just ask Donald Sterling, the Clippers owner, who makes a handsome profit each year with his chronically-losing mishap of a team.

Personally I think the Lakers are going to be in a world of lower playoff seed spots for the rest of this decade, regardless of who they bring in because Kobe is not a team player. Name one team with players who didn't play team ball and won the championship? Winning teams may have a star player (or two), but they all have solid roll players who step up and play their part. The unsung heros. The Paxsons, the Kenny Smiths, the Horance Grants, the Ron Harpers, the Robert Horrys, the Sean Elliots, the Steve Kerrs, the Bill Lambiers, the Byron Scotts. But roll players are do a team no good if the star does not trust them and put them in a position to deliver.

Here's the litmus test - imagine that it's Game 7 in the NBA Finals, Lakers down by 1 with less than five seconds left in the game. Lakers are inbounding. You know it's going to Kobe; I know it's going to Kobe; the whole stadium knows it's going to Kobe. Not surprisingly, Kobe gets the ball, dribbles, and is quickly double-teamed, time winding down. Here's the million dollar question: does Kobe pass to the open man for the last shot or does he go up against two defenders? Sadly, I think Kobe would place fate in his own hands and take the challenging, double-teamed shot attempt. And that decision of Kobe's is why the Lakers are destined to a subpar run through the rest of Kobe's prime playing days. ... UNLESS a coach, or his wife, or someone can talk some sense into him and help him realize that winning in basketball is not a solitary effort. This isn't one-on-one street ball. But if Phil Jackson couldn't impart this wisdom onto Kobe, what coach possibly could?

I think the real problem stems from Kobe getting too much too early. How many basketball players have won three championships? How many have done that by the time they were 24? Just one - Kobe Bryant. Kobe won too early in his career, taking the rings for granted. As he aged and his skills improved, he started demanding the ball more, taking a more individualistic approach toward the game. PJ, Shaq, and Kobe were with the Lakers from 2000 through 2004, the Lakers winning it all the first three years, but falling short the last two. And why was that? Because of Shaq being out of shape? Roll players (e.g., Horry losing his touch, Fox's injuries, etc.) falling short? Sure, those had an effect, but the major culprit was Kobe's play.

In the first championship run, Kobe was a youngster, letting Shaq lead the team and playing good team ball. Afterwards, he wanted more responsibility, more ball time, more leadership. His requests were quelled for another year, and in that second championship, with Kobe playing second fiddle and both Shaq and Kobe's skills and talent culminating, the Lakers were their most dominant since PJ/Shaq/Kobe's pairing. It would be all downhill from that second championship, as Kobe, coming into his own physically and talent-wise, wanted to be the man. Wanted that last second shot instead of Big Shot Rob. Wanted to be the main offensive option. Didn't want no coach to be telling him how to play. The results were predictable - barely escaping from the WCF the following year against a better Sacramento Kings team. Losing to the Spurs in 2003, and getting whipped by the paragon of team, the Detroit Pistons, in 2004. Too freaking predictable.

And now Shaq is gone; Phil is gone; no one remains but Kobe, and his attitude and behavior hasn't changed on iota. The Lakers are headed for an early summer vacation this year and likely in the next several years to come. Things won't change until Kobe does, and he's not getting any younger.

This and That...

Scott — Tue, 18 Jan 2005 03:03:00 GMT

The NBA has seen two darling teams emerge this year: the Sonics and the Suns. The Suns, though, have been falling from favor as of late, tonight losing their fourth in a row to Detroit, 80-94. This game, like the three previous loses, was without assist leader and floor general Steve Nash, who'll remain sidelined until later this week with his bruised thigh. This losing streak exposes one of the Suns's main weaknesses: their lack of depth. Not much happening with their bench, which is one of the reasons why I can't see this team making a profound impact once the playoffs roll around.

Seattle is continuing to win, though, holding steady at a 75% winning percentage and leading their division by 8.5 games against the Timberwolves. Of course the deepest team, the one I picked at the start of the season to win it all, the San Antonio Spurs, are continuing to steadily win games, racking up a 31-9 record, second only to Phoenix's 31-8 record. The Spurs meet the Suns on Friday the 21st, and with any luck Nash will be back in the lineup. Assuming Nash is back to 100%, it should be an exciting and fun game.

Looking to the East, the Heat have been anything but hot lately, cooling off from their impressive 14 game winning streak that spanned from December 6th through January 1st. Since the new year, the Heat have played 8 games and won only half of them. All four loses came to Western Conference teams: Seattle twice, Phoenix, and the Clippers. They still lead the Eastern Conference by a handful of games and have some easy Ws coming up in the next couple of weeks with games against Atlanta twice, New Orleans, Philly, and Toronto. Their only real challenge over the next two weeks will be their game on Friday the 21st against the Pacers, the only +0.500 team they'll be facing in this upcoming stretch.

Finally, looking at my latest entry on the Ewing Theory and Kobe's absense from the Lakers is having mixed results. The Lakers won their first game without Kobe in a close one at Golden State, but just lost their second contest without Kobe in an 8 point loss to the Jazz. With any luck they'll pick up the remaining two home games this week: on Wednesday against the Timberwolves and on Friday against the Golden State Warriors.

The Suns Improve to 22-3

Scott — Tue, 21 Dec 2004 04:12:00 GMT

The Phoenix Suns upped their record to 22-3 tonight with an exciting win over the Nuggets, 107-105. They are on pace to win 72.16 games this season, if they can keep up their frantic pace. Could the Phoenix Suns do the unthinkable and break the Chicago Bull's record of 72 wins in a season? I highly, highly, highly doubt it - in fact, I'd wager that they won't top the Bulls/Lakers second best season-wins record of 69 - too many variables come into play: injuries, cold streaks, hot streaks from other teams.

Regardless, the Suns have made a very profound statment to the League thus far through the season: they are for real. They have the best record in the Leage with a couple more wins than the Spurs, and the Sonics, who started off so hot, have been in a mini-slump as of late, losing 2 of their last 3. The Suns, though, are as hot as the celestial body that bears their name, having won nine straight, many of those wins against decent to strong teams (Seattle, Washington, Cleveland, Utah, Orlando, etc.).

I'm really looking forward to the Lakers/Heat matchup coming on Christmas day. In part because of the drama - Shaq issued a “warning” to Kobe on Monday - but also because I'll be with my brother and Dad, a duo I've not watched a basketball game with together since back when I was in high school and the Bulls still had MJ.