Lakers News and Commentary : Indiana Pacers

We've Got Ourselves Some Series!

Scott — Sun, 30 Apr 2006 17:07:00 GMT

I didn't think there'd be too much drama in the first round of the playoffs this year, but we certainly have some interesting series! The Bulls just knotted up their series with the Heat at two games apiece, the Pacers are giving the Nets a run for their money, and the Lakers are amazingly playing their best team basketball all season, and not a minute too soon. In fact, the Mavs are the only team who are enjoying a 3-0 lead (both Detroit and San Anontio lost the third game in their series).

Friday night's games were also a blast, with LeBron taking his team on the back and netting 41 points, including a last minute shot to take the lead with a few seconds left in the game. And the Kings beat the Spurs with a game ending, coast-to-coast layup. (And that Lakers/Suns game wasn't too shaby, either.)

As NBA fans we've really been blessed over the past few years, since the Eastern and Western Conferences achieved parity. Those who were watching the NBA back in the first half of this decade no doubt recall the overwhelming dominance of the Western Conference. While the Eastern Conference still lacks the talent depth found in the West, it's no longer fair to call it the Leastern Conference.

No Big Surprises in the Playoffs...

Scott — Thu, 27 Apr 2006 01:15:00 GMT

No big surprises after the first couple of games in the playoffs. The "Contenders" - San Antonio, Detroit, Miami, and Dallas - all hold 2-0 leads. Some people pegged the Bulls or Grizz as the surprise teams, and while 2-0 isn't the same as 4-0, I can't fathom any of the "Contenders" dropping four of the next five games.

Also, as I predicted, the Clippers are playing well despite their year end malaise. And the Suns/Lakers series is seeming to get more interesting, with a close game on Sunday and the Lakers up by 15 at half time. Going back to LA with the series knotted at 1-1 it vital if the Lakers hope in winning this series. Regardless of their half time lead and the possibility of a tied series, I don't see the Lakers winning this one, as the Suns have too much offensive firepower. Unless the Lakers can have monumental games from Odom and Kawme, they're going to have a hard time making it to the WCSF.

And what of the Pacers/Nets and Cavs/Wiz series? Those are shaping up nicely, too. Indy got a lucky win on Sunday, which will probably be their only one of the series. The Cavs/Wiz, I predict, will go 6 or 7, with the Wiz prevailing (only to get smacked around by Detroit).

The great games will commence in the Semi Finals... Dallas v. San Antonio being the premier matchup. And of course the conference finals promise to be delightfully entertaining as well.

2005-2006 Playoff Predictions

Scott — Thu, 20 Apr 2006 12:54:00 GMT

Time for this year's insanely inaccurate playoff predictions! But before we begin, let's review my oracle skills from last season, when I made my 2004-2005 playoff predictions. My Eastern Conference picks were nearly perfect. I ended up picking all of the first round winners and did predict the Pistons besting the Heat in the ECF. In the West, however, I took a beating as I ignorantly guessed that Denver would upset the Spurs.... which kind of ruined the whole Western Conference (although I did predict the Suns making it to the WCF). This year I'm going to put a little more faith in the Spurs!

Let's get started!

Eastern Conference

Round 1
(1) Detroit beats (8) Milwaukee - Milwaukee has the least envious position of having to face the winningest, most veteran and poised team in the NBA. Barring Chauncey and Rip running into each other leading to season-ending injuries, followed up by Ben Wallace running over to see if his team mates are all right and colliding with Rasheed, ending both of their seasons, I don't see how the Bucks can win four games out of seven against this team. In fact, I'm thinking.... sweep!

(4) Cleveland loses to (5) Washington - Washington has a bit more playoff experience and while LeBron is a man child, he's still lacks the inexperience. It's OK, BronBron, MJ didn't reach the second round of the playoffs until his fourth season.

(3) New Jersey beats (6) Indiana - With New Jersey playing on fire lately and Indiana still enjoying their descent from what could have been since the Ron Artest mele, I see this one over with in 5 with NJ dominating throughout. They'll need to win quickly, too, as Kidd could use the rest.

(2) Miami beats (7) Chicago - Don't bet against The Deisel. Yes, Shaq's another year older and another year slower, but he's still The M.D.E. Combine that with Dwayne Wade and it's hard to see this Bulls team winning more than 2 (if that).

Round 2
(1) Detroit beats (5) Washington - More of the same from the Pistons (assuming no injuries), besting the Wizards in 5.

(2) Miami beats (3) New Jersey - While the Heat are a bit banged up and in a bit of a funk, and while the Nets are playing the best ball all season, I still think the Heat have more options and can beat teams in more ways. This assumes that Shaq is able to ratchet it up a notch and Wade is 100%. This should probably be a very interesting series, but I think the Heat will take it in 6.

Round 3
(1) Detroit beats (2) Miami - A rematch of last year's ECFs. However this time the series isn't nearly as close and the Pistons win in 6. Pat Reilly proceeds to detonate the Heat roster once again in the off-season.

Western Conference

Round 1
(1) San Antonio beats (8) Sacramento - while the Spurs aren't completely healthy, they are the defending NBA champs and have a solid roster of veterans and play makers. I've learned my lesson from last year - do not doubt the Spurs!

(4) Dallas over Memphis (5) - It's a shame that Dallas is seeded fourth (as Mark Cuban will happily tell you), but no one will regret that more than the Grizz, who have yet to win a playoff series in the franchise history and aren't going to start now. The big question for Mavs fans - will Dirk show up this postseason? He'll need to if the Mavs have any hope of reaching the WCF or beyond.

(6) LA Clippers over (3) Denver - this is one of my two “upset” picks. While the Clippers have been playing lackluster basketball the last few weeks of the season, it would be nice to see them actually have some impact in the postseason for the first time in a loooooooooong time. Should be a good series. Keep on eye on Cassell and his leadership. Clippers in 7.

(2) Phoenix over (7) LA Lakers - even though the Lakers bested the Suns in the final season meeting, that final game was sans Steve Nash and included 43 from Kobe. With Nash, the Suns won the other three games against the Lakers this season. I expect Kobe will have two (or three?) big games in this series, which should be fun to watch, but I can't fathom the Lakers winning four out of seven. Phoenix in 5, unless Kobe has multiple Herculean efforts, in which case Suns in 6.

Round 2
(1) San Antonio over (4) Dallas - this is the hardest matchup to predict, in my opinion, and will likely be one of the best to watch. I have to give the edge to the defending champs here, since Dirk has yet to prove himself able to step it up in the playoffs. Last year there was a lot of finger-pointing when the Ls started to pile up. This year the Mavs will need to put any dissent behind them and learn to prosper as a team. And Dirk will have to be able to say, “Give me the ball,“ in crunch time and, more importantly, make the big play.

(2) Phoenix loses to (6) LA Clippers - here's the other “upset” pick, another risky guess. Regardless of the eventual winner, I think this is a series that goes six games, minimum. I pick the Clips, in part, because I'm hoping to see a ray of sunlight into the otherwise dreary lives of Clippers fans.

Round 3
(1) San Antonio over (6) LA Clippers - after a brutal WCSF series against the Mavs, the Spurs will have it easy against the Clippers, out playing them with ease and winning in 5.

NBA Finals

Detroit beats San Antonio in 7 - another great Finals matchup. Like last year, there will be some blowout games, but the series will go 6, if not 7, and have a fair mix of down-to-the-wire games, with the Pistrons (if they can stay healthy!) taking the title back from the Spurs.

Artest is Back!

Scott — Wed, 12 Oct 2005 01:11:00 GMT

Ron Artest is back - and in more ways than one. Artest played in his first NBA game tonight since “the brawl” back in November 2004, recording 8 points, 3 boards, and 3 fouls. But not only is he back in presence, he's also back in spirit. Before the game began, Artest commented:

"I'm going to continue playing hard and out of control, like a wild animal that needs to be caged in. I'll let the referees handle it."

Good to have you back, Ronnie!

I'm sure the David Stern was hoping it would be sometime before the first preseason game of the season before Artest was quoted as saying he would play “out of control,” but what did you expect, Mr. Commish? I think the NBA frontoffice will have a very tight eye on Artest throughout the season, and expect the hammer to fall if he steps out of line. David Stern is not a guy to mess with - you'll lose - and I think Artest is going to find that out sooner than later.

Hopefully Artest pulls a “Rasheed Wallace” and transforms from an out of control player better known for their technicals and brash behavior to one who quiets down, concentrates on the game, and doesn't give the reporters any fuel for the fire.

We shall see................

Assessing my Playoff Picks Thus Far

Scott — Sat, 07 May 2005 18:14:00 GMT

Back on April 22nd I made my NBA playoff predictions. I am notoriously poor when it comes to making predictions, but, if you don't mind me saying, I did a pretty decent job in picking the teams through, at least, the first round.

Eastern Conference

My pick: Heat (1) beats New Jersey (8) in 6
Results: Heat (1) beat New Jersey (8) in 4. The series wasn't nearly as close as I had suspected, even with Shaq at half strength, still troubled by his leg injuries. However, the Heat did shoot insanely well, Wade and Damon Jones playing extremely well throughout the series, with a better than expected contribution from Mourning. That, coupled with the lackluster and inconsistent play from New Jersey gave the Heat an easy first round shutout, the only game of interest being the double-OT Game 3.

My pick: Detroit (2) beats the 76ers in 6.
Results: Detroit (2) beats the 76ers in 5. This series had a number of closer games than the Heat/Jersey series, but Detroit played pretty much in control throughout, even though they had some concerning deficiets in certain games. Watching this series increased my resolve in my pick as Detroit as the Eastern Conference champs. Even though they faced a number of situations in games where things looked dark, where it would have been easy to just pack it in and take the L, they stayed calm, level-headed, and pulled out the win. The mark of a true gelled, talented, professional team.

My pick: Celtics (3) loose to Pacers (6) in 6.
Results: ??? Game 7 is tonight. Personally, I think the Pacers will win this one. Regardless who wins tonight, though, I think they'll lose to the Pistons in 5 or 6.

My pick: Chicago (4) loses to the Wizards (5) in 6.
Results: Chicago (4) loses to the Wizards (5) in 6. Called this one perfectly. Chicago jumped out to a 2-0 lead in the series, but the Wizards hung tough and came back to win the next four straight, hanging on against a tough Bulls rally in Game 5 and coming from behind at the end of the game in the clinching Game 6. While this first playoff series win for the Wiz in 20-some years is great for the franchise and city, it's unfortunate that they now have to face the Heat, who I anticipate will take this series as convincingly as they did the first, winning in 4 or 5.

Western Conference

My pick: Phoenix (1) beats Memphis (8) in 4.
Results: Phoenix (1) beats Memphis (8) in 4. No surprises here.

My pick: San Antonio (2) loses to Denver (7) in 6.
Results: San Antonio (2) beats Denver (7) in 5. This was, admittedly, my “risky” guess, and I was giddy to see Denver win Game 1. But then the Spurs regrouped and showed their mettle. They are a veteran team used to the playoffs, and I anticipate they'll get past the Sonics without too much difficulty, winning in 5 or 6.

My pick: Seattle (3) beats Sacramento (6) in 6.
Results: Seattle (3) beats Sacramento (6) in 5.

My pick: Dallas (4) beats Houston (5) in 5.
Results: ??? Game 7 is tonight in Dallas. The Rockets played a lot better than I had expected, in large part thanks to McGrady playing off the hook, and a phenomenal Game 2 from Yao. My guess is that the Mavs pull out the W tonight unless McGrady has an insane game or Yao returns to his Game 2 form. This series has been one of the most interesting - exciting games, high scores, and Van Gundgygate, with Houston Coach Van Gundy getting a historic $100,000 fine and further threats from Commish Stern.

Depending on how tonight's two Game 7s turn out, I could be 7/8 for the first round, with my only incorrect pick my most risky.

Looking forward to the next round, I think the most exciting series will be the Suns v. Houston/Dallas, while the other series won't be too exciting. However, both Conference Finals ought to be amazing, assuming it's the Suns/Spurs and Heat/Pistons as it appears it will be. If those four teams make it to the Conference Finals, the NBA Finals are going to be great, no matter who makes it.

My Playoff Predictions

Scott — Fri, 22 Apr 2005 18:58:00 GMT

The NBA playoffs get underway tomorrow, so I best be making my picks. Before I do, though, let's look back at my, accurately dubbed, “insanely inaccurate” picks at the beginning of the season. Out of the east I thought the conference would shake out like so:

Detroit
Pacers
Heat
76ers
Bucks
Cavs
Nets
Knicks

Personally I think those picks weren't too bad. Who could have guessed the Bulls of all teams would have had the season they've had, or the Wizards for that matter? Or that the Cavs would self-implode? Or that an in-stands brawl would knock out one of Indiana's top players for the season (Artest) and their premier center (O'Neal) for a month?

In the West I did a bit worse, IMO. Here's how I envisioned the season would shake out:

Spurs
T-Wolves
Kings
Rockets
Nuggets
Mavs
Lakers
Jazz

Regardless, though, I don't think these picks were too far astray. The Lakers should have made the postseason, and who knows how the Jazz would have fared with AK, a productive Boozer, and a content Arroyo? And the T-Wolves surely disappointed.

I guess what's most disappointing is that all my picks were safe. I didn't roll the dice on a team like the Bulls, Sonics, or Wizards breaking out. I didn't have the foresight to see that young and gun + a true point guard would have equalled excitement and Ws in Phoenix. Eh, so it goes.

Without further adeu, here are my picks for the playoffs:

Eastern Conference

Round 1
Miami (1) beats New Jersey (8) - New Jersey is playing well now, but Miami is a better team. There will be matchup problems on both ends - the Heat have no answer for VC, the Nets no answer for Shaq. Miami in 6

Detroit (2) beats the 76ers (7) - Detroit is going to cruise through this series. They ended the season hot and are ready to repeat as NBA champs. Detroit in 5.

Celtics (3) lose to the Pacers (6) - will be a tough fight, especially with O'Neal not being 100%. I think the series could go either way, but I'd rather put my money on a team I think has more consistency. Pacers in 6.

Chicago (4) loses to the Wizards (5) - the Bulls have been hurt with Curry and Deng injuries. Bummer. Plus, team is too young. If Krause keeps the nucleus together, this team will be back here next year and will be better/smarter. Wizards in 6.

Round 2
(1) Miami beats the Wizards (5) - Miami is a better team than these Wizards. More postseason experience, too. Miami in 4.

(2) Detroit beats the Pacers (6) - Detroit is the team to beat in the postseason. They are on a roll, have a healthy roster, and will manhandle the Pacers (or the Celtics, if they make it). Detroit in 5.

Round 3
(1) Miami loses to Detroit (2) - Personally, I'd like to see Shaq make it to the Finals (again), but I think the Heat are going to have a hard time against the Pistons. Miami limped into the postseason with a piss poor finish; Shaq is older; the Heat don't have much of a supporting cast. Compare that to Detroit, which has a deeper team, the experience/swagger of being the NBA champs, and is on quite the roll. Pacers in 6.

Western Conference

Round 1
(1) Phoenix beats Memphis (8) - Phoenix is red hot, the Grizz are ice cold. Memphis hasn't won a playoff game in its team's history yet, and it ain't gonna happen this season, either. Suns in 4.

(2) San Antonio loses to Denver (7) - This is my “risky“ guess here, rollin' the dice.... Denver is the last team the Spurs want to face, and they'll provide a great challenge. I think that the Spurs are better than the Nuggets and have more experience, but the Spurs have a track record of folding in the playoffs in the past... Denver in 7.

(3) Seattle beats Sacramento (6) - Peja is hurt; the Sonics have been in a slump. Prediction: this playoff series will not be nearly as exciting as it could be if both teams were playing top-notch, light-'em-up basketball. Sonics win in 6.

(4) Dallas beats Houston (5) - Dallas is playing well and the Rockets are still waiting for Yao to become a true franchise player (although I doubt he ever will). Dallas in 5.

Round 2
(1) Phoenix beats Dallas (4) - This is likely to be one of the most exciting and fun series to watch - two offensively minded teams going at one another on one end of the court (but not really the other). Plus this series will have the extra drama of Nash's chance to show Cubes what's up. Should be a close and fun series, but the Suns are a more talented, younger, and exciting team. Suns in 6.

(3) Seattle loses to Denver (7) - bouyed with their win over the Spurs, an energetic Denver will take it to Seattle, winning the series in 6.

Round 3
(1) Phoenix beats Denver (7) - this will be a good series, but not quite the Spurs/Suns series everyone was itching to see. The Nuggets will get frustrated by early Suns wins and pack it up and go home. Suns in 5.

NBA Finals

Phoenix loses to Detroit - we have a repeat, ladies and gentlemen. If this matchup comes to fruition, I don't care who wins - it's bound to be one helluva exciting and entertaining series.

Most Exciting Endings of All Time?

Scott — Fri, 10 Dec 2004 13:53:00 GMT

There have been a gaggle of professional basketball games played over the years, so it's not surprising that there have been some amazing endings to games. Last night, Tracey McGrady provided such an ending, helping the struggling Rockets overcome the Spurs.

The Spurs were up by 7 with under a minute left, but lost it thanks to a barrage of 3s by T-Mac. McGrady started his spree with a four-point play, getting fouled by Duncan and hitting the three. Rockets down by 3. The Spurs score, so Rockets down by 5, now. Perfect time for T-Mac to launch up another three, which swishes in, Rockets down by 2. Spurs call timeout and advance it to half court. They inbound, but the ball is lost, T-Mac comes running down the court and heaves up a three with two guys in his grill - swish! Rockets win by 1, 81-80. Insane.

Quite an exciting ending last night, but where does it rank on the All-Time List of Exciting Endings? Clearly it can't be ranked too high, since this was just a regular season game. No, for a game to make the All-Time list the ending would not only need to be exciting, but also be a game that means something. And also have an effect past the game (such as Fisher's 0.4 second shot that sucked the life force out of the Spurs for that series). Without giving it too much thought, here's my list of All-Time Most Exciting Endings for NBA games (and, yes, it's biased to the Bulls and Lakers, because those are the teams I've followed over the years):

Jodan's Second to Last Shot, Steal from Karl Malone, and Final Shot (Game 6, 1998 Finals) - this will, likely, be the #1 exciting ending for me, personally, because I was watching that game with five die-hard Jazz fans. The Bulls had struggled with the Pacers in the ECF, going to 7 games, and the word was that they were too tired to beat the Jazz. The Jazz took their Finals loss last year, but '98 was supposed to be time for the Jazz.

Going into Game 6, the Bulls has a 3-2 lead, but had lost the last game. And Game 6 (as well as Game 7) were to be played in Utah. These Jazz fans I was watching the game with started talking real smack as the Jazz lead throughout most of the game. Late in the game, just before this sequence, one friend said, “Looks like we're going to a Game 7, and the Bulls look too tired to win that one. No Three-Peat this time.“ Perhaps that single line jinxed the Jazz, because following that Jordan came down the court and hit that running layup. This is when I stood up... HERE WE GO. Down on D, Jordan runs past Malone, only to pop back and strip the ball. THERE'S NOT GONNA BE A GAME 7, FOOLS! Jordan, comes down the court, and pops a shot (after giving Russell a slight shove) - swish! (Man, why did Jordan have to come back, that memory was the perfect ending to his career for me......)
Fisher's Three to Beat San Antonio (Game 5, 2004 WCSF) - 0.4 seconds, need I say more? What made that especially exciting was the fact that the Lakers had a sound lead going into the 4th - which they squandered - and Duncan hit that impossible shot over Shaq from the top of the key to put the Spurs up by 1 with 0.4 second. And then my man, D-Fish, hits that crazy shot with less than half a second. Wild. Not only was this an exciting finish in its own right, but it managed to also take the wind out of the Spurs' sails, allowing the Lakers to advance to the WCFs and, eventually, the Finals.
Horry's Three-Ball to Beat the Kings (Game 4, 2002 WCF) - I think last second threes where the guy gets to setup are probably more exciting that seeing the guy running around with the ball at the top of the arc, and then heaving a shot up. Why? Well, when that guy gets the ball behind the arc, there's that sucking in of air, that nervous pause, as he squares up and lets it fly. There's no preparation for it, like with T-Mac's last second three last night (you knew as he ran down the court he was going to shoot a 3) - it just goes in the shooter's hands and all of a sudden it's an, “Oh my God, this is it“ moment. Had Horry missed that shot, the Kings would be up 3-1, but with the make the series was knotted at two a piece, and the Lakers did go on to win (in seven).
Paxon's Three Against the Suns (Game 6, 1993 Finals) - Another one of those “Oh my God“ moments, as Grant kicks the ball out to Paxon for the open three. This setup is somewhat similar to Game 6 of the '98 Finals - the Bulls were trying to Three Peat, they were fatigued, were in Phoenix for Games 6 and 7, were down by 2 to the Suns late in the game... it was shaping up for a disaster, but Paxon's shot saved the game and brought the first Three Peat in over a decade to the city of Chicago.
Reggie Miller's Barrage of Three's (Game 1, 1995 ECSF) - This was the game where Miller scored eight points in 8.9 seconds. This was made possible by Reggie's sharpshooting, but also because the Knicks blundered down the stretch, making a couple bad passes/decisions. But still, Reggie was on fire and was not going to miss. The Pacers went on to win the series in seven games.

Any games I've missed? Care to add your own? On an aside, I found the following page - http://www.nba.com/germany/sharpshooters/three_debut_040908.html - which has footage of the Top 10 3 Pointers in the Last 25 Years, and includes Reggie's shots as well as Paxon's three to win the '93 Finals.

Response to recker17

Scott — Wed, 24 Nov 2004 02:30:00 GMT

This is in response to recker17's blog entry, In Response to Scott, which was in response to a comment of mine in recker17's blog entry Pacers-Pistons Brawl.

recker17, do you really, honestly think that Artest lying on the scorer's table is anything but inciteful? If he needed to cool down, to get away from Big Ben, why not just walk the other direction? Why not take a seat at the Pacer's bench? Why not just go stand under the basket, or just turn his back? He stretched out on the scorer's table; he put on an announcer's headphones. He was trying to infuriate Ben Wallace further. It would be like if your brother was trying to pick a fight with you and your mom was scolding him, and while she was scolding him you were making faces at him. His actions were immature and intended to elicit a response.

Of course, his actions do not excuse fans throwing things at him, that was totally deplorable. But the ideal way to handle this would be to point out the offender to security and let them handle it. What you should not do is fly off the handle and attack random folks in the stands.

Yes, Artest is talented. He's one of the top 25 NBA players out there, IMO. But he's #1 on the crazy level. The dude does have anger management issues, and if he can't control those (which he obviously couldn't in Detroit last Friday), then he does not deserve to play in the league. If you want to be in the NBA you need to abide by its rules, and a core rule is no running into the stands and beating on random, innocent fans!

Stern Hands Out the Suspensions

Scott — Sun, 21 Nov 2004 21:22:00 GMT

In my last blog entry I predicted suspensions for the players involved in Friday night's fracas in Detroit:

Artest and Jackson I said I wouldn't be surprised if they were suspended for the entire season, and at least for a month or more.
For O'Neal I predicted a 10-15 game suspension.
For Ben Wallace, whose hard shove to Artest started the whole unfortunately chain of events, I predicted 8-10 games.

Well, the word has come down from the mount today, and here are the results:

Artest for the rest of the season
Jackson for 30 games (won't see PT until January 22, 2005)
O'Neal for 25 games (won't see PT until Janurary 14, 2005)
Wallace for 6 games

Pretty harsh penalties, Stern & crew are trying desperately to send a clear and consistent message: scare the fans and be prepared to ride the pine. And this is a good message to send the players - it is the fans, after all, who pay their astronomically high salaries. They're the ones buying the tickets, buying the jerseys, watching the games on TV, drinking the sports drinks these players pimp, and so on. Yes, professional atheletes have to endure quite a bit from hostile, away-court fans, but this is part of the game. These NBA players put up with it (or they should put up with it) because they are being paid to do just that. I mean, if these guys were getting less than what they'd get at a regular 9-5 job, then who'd want this career? But they're getting paid millions. If they can't handle some verbal abuse, they're in the wrong profession.

So the Christmas matchup between the Pacers and Pistons will be somewhat anticlimactic, seeing as the Pacers will be without Artest, Jackson, or O'Neal, the three fist-throwers from Friday night's brawl. Riddled with injuries, it will be interesting to see how the Pacers proceed through the next couple of months. They played with a six man rotation last night and nearly toppled Orlando thanks to superior play from Fred Jones. It'll be interesting to see if they pick up some currently unsigned free agents or try to roll with diminuitive roster. In either case this team, that's currently sitting a 7-3 atop the Central Division, has a challenging road ahead of them.

One last link before I go... there's an official Timeline of the Pistons-Pacers Brawl for those who are interesting a (forgive the term) blow-by-blow account of the evening's events.

Brawl in Detroit

Scott — Sat, 20 Nov 2004 18:28:00 GMT

I was running some errands this morning and saw a picture of Artest on the cover of the L.A. Times, his jersey stretched out like he had been in a fight. “Damn,” I thought, “looks like Artest went crazy again, maybe he needed a suspension for some more time on his album.” When I got back, I hit ESPN.com's NBA page and found out just how excitingly terrifying that brawl had been. What an insane fight. Here is my analysis, and what I think will come of all of this.

First, the hard foul on Ben Wallace from Artest was, perhaps, a bit over the top. There was less than a minute left in the game with the Pacers well ahead. I know they had been bringing it to Ben all night, and this was just a continuation of that, but I could see how Ben's frustrations would have boiled over, seeing as his team had lost the game and he had been manhandled throughout the 48 minutes. So Artest was sending a message: “Each time you come out, I'm gonna defend you and play hard, so get used to it.” I can see Ben's reaction, though. It's like on the courts I play at, if it's point all, no one complains about a hard foul. But if you're losing 12 to 3, and a guy beats you for a layup that will win the game, and you clobber him, he's gonna be pissed off and get up in your face.

Ben's reaction was a bit strong, though. A shove is one thing, but a shove to the face is another. Perhaps he was just letting off steam, or maybe he was hoping Artest would respond, and get suspended for much longer. But Artest played it cool, did the right thing. He backed off, figuring he'd have the last laugh - Ben would get suspended and the Pacers had the W. He did take it a bit too far when he laid down on the scorer's table, though, and I think that's what prompted the fan to chuck his drink at Artest. Regardless, the fan shouldn't have thrown a drink, even if Artest had decided to moon the crowd.

Once that drink was thrown, Artest overreacted. When a fan throws something, the smart athelete gets to center court, or goes back to the lockerroom. Like in the ALCS, when the Yankee fans started throwing beers on the field after Alex Rodriguez's karate chop on the way to first was ruled an out, the Sox manager rounded up his players from the field and had them come in. You can't let a fan in the crowd provoke you, because you should know that the League is going to come down on you so hard if you go into the stands. (Vernon Maxwell's charge into the stands in '95 cost him 10 games (~12% of the season) and $20k.) Plus, getting hit with a plastic bottle might hurt, but it's not going to injure you or kill you. Now if a fan's throwing Chinese stars, sure, defend yourself, or get the hell out of the way, but a drink? Retreat, calm down, and think.

And so Artest treks up in the stands, and the look on that white guy's face is prescious. Here's a 5'9”, 155 lb. white guy, seeing this 6'7”, 247 lb. black guy running up to him. If I were that white guy, I think it would be about then that I'd crap my pants. What's hilarious is that (supposedly), Artest got the wrong guy. If everything had ended there, I don't think Artest would get more than a 10 game suspension, but it escaled when Stephen Jackson ran into the stands behind Artest and threw a punch. Punching a person who's (indirectly) paying your salary is not a smart thing to do. I have no idea why Jackson went up with Artest and threw a punch, and I think he's going to get some serious pine time.

At this point, Artest probably could have walked away with a suspension lasting only a few games. But, no, he had to elevate it from crazy to “Artest-crazy.” As Artest was walking back toward his bench, a fan that had come onto the floor stood between him and the bench and, likely, made some jarring remark. The smart thing for Artest to do would have been to ignore the fan, or even just push him lightly away. (I mean, Artest has a good 10 inches and 60 pounds on this guy.) But no, what does Artest do? He winds up - you can see it, he freakin' steps back pulls his fist back - and then clocks this guy. Oh crap. We have now lost sanity. And if that's not sufficiently insane, Jermain O'Neal decided to get in on the action, flying in from stage right to deliver a more devestating punch to another fan who had meandered onto the court.

What a crazy series of events. The questions now are:

What actions will be taken against the players who are (currently) suspended indefinitely? (Ben Wallace, Artest, Jackson, and O'Neal.)
What actions will be taken against the fans who either threw items onto the court/players, or went onto the court?
How will this incident affect the NBA?

Had the brawl not errupted the way it did, I think Wallace would have been looking at a 2-5 game suspension. Even though Wallace did not participate in the in-stands melee, I think he will get a more severe suspension and fine because his act instigated this whole mess and the NBA, I don't think, will want to look soft here. I am anticipating a 8-10 game suspension, and a hefty fine. Yes, the same penalty Maxwell got for punching a heckler 12 rows up in '95.

I think Jackson and Artest are going to get crazy suspensions. Upon watching the video for the first time, I thought to myself, “I wouldn't be surprised if they were suspended for the entire season.” That seems a bit too long, a move that would infuriate numerous fans, owners, and players, but I still wouldn't be surprised to see these guys sitting for months. 15 games? 20 games? 25 games? None of these amounts would surprise me in the least. O'Neal will be suspended, no doubt - you just shouldn't be punching a fan unless he punches you first, and even then you're just asking for a civil law suit - but his suspension will not be as drastic as Jackson's or Artest's, as he refrained from going into the stands and only punched a guy who was between him and his bench. I'm thinking at least a 10-game suspension for O'Neal, maybe as many as 15, though.

(In re-reading my estimates, I think they may be way off. I don't know if the League has the cojones to suspend three team players for what would amount to one or more months of play. Stern and crew like to keep a tight grip on the family-friendliness of their league, but forcing out three players on one team for several months may be a bit too drastic. Although it's hard not to watch the footage and think that these players deserve less of a suspension. Yes, I know the fans are at fault here, too, but the players need to show more restraint and professionalism.)

Now, what will happen to the players? I doubt anything more than revokation of their season tickets will occur. I don't think you'll see any criminal suits being brought up, no one will go to jail, no one will be fined. Reportedly, one fan was taken to a hospital via an ambulance, so we might be looking at some civil suits. I don't know the status of that white guy Artest charged, but if he is truly innocent and was truly hurt, I wouldn't be surprised to see him try to make a stink in court. Hell, I'd do it, if nothing else just to be able to see Artest in court for a few days, get some photos, try to get an autograph (hehe), razz him about his music producing career, etc., etc. The fans will likely also get to do the talk show circuit: Jim Rome's show, The Best Damned Sports Show, etc. They'll get their 15 minutes.

Will the NBA change? For this season, most definitely. I think you'll see Stern responding to this by requiring beefed up stadium security and sending out the message to other players, “If you screw with the fans under any circumstances, we will suspend you for a long, long time.” But once this season wraps up, and the media's attention turns to the impending bargaining between the League and the Player's Union, you'll see this focus on security deminish a bit until something like this happens again. And things like this don't happen that often in sports, maybe once or twice a decade. (An interesting corollary: ESPN.com has a piece on the Greatest Brawls of All Time. My favote one was when, in 1918, Ty Cobb fought a one armed, two-fingered fan in the stands: “A couple of days worth of heckling by Yankees fans finally got to Cobb at the old Yankee home, Hilltop Park. Cobb vaulted into the stands behind the Tigers' bench and went right after a man identified, pseudonymously, as 'Otto Blotz.' The Peach pummeled Mr. Blotz, who couldn't fight back with his fists -- he only had one hand, and that hand had only two digits.”)

In the meantime, there is definitely going to be some fun discussions over at rec.sport.basketball.pro, and a slew of oped articles around the Web, such as this one, this one, this one, this one, this one, this one, this... well, you get the point.

My Insanely Inaccurate 2004-2005 Predictions

Scott — Tue, 19 Oct 2004 20:35:00 GMT

Accurately predicting the outcome of an NBA season is hard enough when you have just a core of stable, dominant teams, but it's near impossible this year, with so many teams in the league reaching parity, thanks in part to some blockbuster trades and player movements in the offseason. (On an aside, can you remember a more eventful off-season in the past 15 years? Granted, there have been some big names moved from one team to another in the past 15 years - J-Kidd for Starbarry, for example - but most moves have been free agency or haven't occurred to the degree in this off-season. Shaq for Odom, Grant, and Butler and T-Mac for Francis being the big two.) The Vegas oddsmakers illustrate this coming season's parity among the top teams:

Spurs, 9-2
Pistons, 6-1
Kings, 7-1
T-Wolves, 8-1
Heat, 8-1
Pacers, 9-1
Rockers, 10-1
Mavs, 14-1
Lakers, 16-1
Nuggets, 18-1

Just a factor of 4 separates the top team from the 10th picked team. Compare this landscape to the odds in 2002-2003, when the Lakers had won two straight championships, winning the second in a dominant style, losing only one game in the entire playoffs. At the start of that season the Lakers were favored with 5-2 odds, or about twice as likely to win it all as the oddsmakers pick the Spurs of winning it all this coming year.

In any event, I want to make my picks for this coming season, so here we go:

Eastern Conference
The Eastern Conference is going to be dominated by the Pistons, with the Pacers close to their heals throughout. Look for the Wallaces to shine, Rip to hussle, Chauncey to make big shots when needed, and Tayshaun to look disinterested throughout. Darko might actually get some playing time, although I'd wager you could count his minutes on one hand, barring a major injury from another player.

The Heat are highly overrated, in my opinion. They'll do fairly well in the East, standings-wise, but will have a ho-hum record and have zero chance of making it to the Finals, let alone winning them. The Nets are kaput, expect a most dismal season from them. They'll be parring with the Knicks to see what team is more pathetic. Of course, in the East the Nets and Knicks will look leagues better than the bottom feeding Bobcats and Hawks. I think the Magic are overrated as well, I doubt Stevie Francis will be able to ignite the team any more so than T-Mac. The Celtics may be on an upswing, adding Payton, havig some time to gel after last year's mid-season trades. With any luck, the Cavs will build upon their successes from last season and break into the playoffs this year.

I think the East playoff picture will shake down like this:

Detroit
Pacers
Heat
76ers
Bucks
Cavs
Nets
Knicks

I now I just disparaged half the teams on the list, but when your competition is the Eastern conference, shit starts to look like gold.

Western Conference
The Western Conference is going to be where the excitement this year resides. I think we're going to have the most balanced conference that we've seen for a long time. As with last season, the majority of the West teams will have better records than the majority of East teams, and the perennial contenders will again rise to the top and make the playoffs. I am really expecting good things this year from the T-Wolves, Nuggets, and Rockets. The Spurs will be the Spurs, of course, and have one of the top records in the league. The Kings and Mavs will both be around the middle of the pack, as usual. I don't think the Grizzlies are going to be able to make the impact and have the success they had last season. I think the other teams - namely the Rockets and Nuggets - have improved too much and are too hungry. The T-Wolves have proven themselves and have added experience, KG is coming into his prime. Just too many good teams out there.

The teams I think have no chances to make the Playoffs include the Sonics, the Clippers, the Warriors, the Suns, and the Hornets. Everyone else in the conference has a shot, and I'd be willing to wager that we won't have a true picture of the Western Conference playoff seedings until very, very late in the regular season. Here's how I see the playoff picture boiling down:

Spurs
T-Wolves
Kings
Rockets
Nuggets
Mavs
Lakers
Jazz

Teams in the bottom spots could easily be replaced by the Grizzlies or the Trailblazers.

The Finals
In the end I'm hoping for a Spurs, T-Wolves showdown in the WCF, and a Pacers, Pistons showdown in the East. The Finals will pit the Wolves against the Pistons, with the Pistons coming out on top again. Yes, you heard it right: back-to-back for the Pistons, in part because of history. (Look back in the last 25 years, a lot of NBA teams win multiple, consecutive titles: Lakers, Bulls, Rockets, Pistons, Lakers, etc. Even those teams that don't are almost always contenders the subsequent years, such as the Spurs, who are still contenders after their last Final win back in the last millenium.).

What was Artest Thinking!?!?

Scott — Wed, 02 Jun 2004 00:57:00 GMT

With the Pacers losing Game 6 tonight, 69-65, the 2004 NBA Finals will be the Lakers vs. the Pistons. I watched most of Game 6 tonight, and it was a pretty exciting game after the first quarter. Of course, as the score reflects, it was not a shootout, but rather a battle of defense. There were some very impressive blocks and steals this game, including several big time swats from O'Neal, and a couple from Prince.

What really hurt the Pacers in this game was Ron Artest's play in the final few minutes. With the game tied, Artest got bumped by Rip Hamilton, which he took as a cheap shot, I guess. Ron responded in the only way he knew how - by giving a blow to Rip right across the chops, resulting in a prompt flagrant foul call. Rip hit both shots, giving the Pistons a two point lead. Then, a few possessions later, the Pacers were down by 4 with 18 seconds left. All they needed was a quick 2 or 3, and then to foul. Unfortunately, the Pacers had no timeouts, so they couldn't collect their thoughts before proceeding, but what was frustrating was to see Artest bring the ball down the court and then, without passing or trying any other option, launches up a three pointer a good 8 feet behind the three-point line. He missed, of course, and the Pistons got the rebound, sealing the game.

I'm not saying Artest is the sole reason the Pacers lost, but he definitely decreased their chances of winning with his low basketball IQ late in the game.

So it's going to be Lakers versus the Pistons, with Game 1 of the Finals on this coming Sunday. The Lakers will have home court advantage, meaning the first two games will be played in L.A., with the next three in Detroit. My prediction: the series will go 6, with the Lakers winning the NBA title. The X-factor will be injuries: the Lakers have a very shallow bench. How many minutes have Russell, Walton, or Fox played in these playoffs? It's pretty much just Shaq, Kobe, Malone, Payton, George, Fisher, Slavo, and Kareem Rush (who had one hell of a Game 6, by the way). The Pistons, on the other hand, have a much deeper rotation, and can weather an injured player better than the Lakers. The Lakers, I think, are the favorites because of Shaq and Kobe. Those two guys have really been the core reason the Lakers won their first three championships to kick off the 21st century.

Game 1 on Sunday! Go Lakers!

Lakers Pick Up Game 3

Scott — Thu, 27 May 2004 01:40:00 GMT

Well, I didn't get to see this game, but I did get to listen to the last six minutes or so on my drive home. Sounded like an odd game - Kobe not scoring in the first half; GP with 18 points. About the only thing that did seem familiar was the outcome - Lakers win 100-89 ; Shaq's free throw shooting - 8 for 22; and the Lakers inconsistent play down the stretch - up by 17 with five minutes left, to up by only 7 two minutes later, with the Wolves in possession of the ball and momentum.

The Wolves implemented what many teams have tried in the past - Hack-A-Shaq - and met with the same results as teams past. I don't get the Hack-A-Shaq approach. Yes, he averages less than 50% at the stripe, but he tends to shoot a tad better down the final stretch, it seems, and even if he shoots 50%, that means he's going to get, on average, 2 points per possession. With the average team shooting well below 50% from the field, it's not hard to see why Hack-A-Shaq rarely works. Add to that the fact that Hack-A-Shaq takes a team out of rhythm, slowing the game down, killing any momentum a team might enjoy from a good couple of trips down the floor. Yes, foul Shaq when he's got the ball down low and is about to posterize you, but don't run and foul him when he's off the ball. That's not a recipe for a W - just ask the Portland Trailblazers.

Game 4 is tomorrow, and Bryant has a court date in Eagle earlier in the day. Bryant has had big games when having to fly to Eagle on game days, so hopefully tomorrow will be no different. The Lakers need to follow up last night's victory with another one, sending a strong message to the Wolves that this series is going to be a short one.

The local media are still expecting the Lakers to steamroll the Wolves. A sports radio personality this morning predicted the Lakers would win Games 4 and 5 to close out the series 4-1. I hope the Lakers can manage that, but I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see this go six. It all depends on how well the Lakers play, how focused they stay, and whether or not Cassell can be any kind of factor in the remainder of the series.

Over in the East the Pacers and Pistons are still battling it out, with the Pistons taking a 2-1 series lead tonight. That series, I imagine, will go seven, and will do so as unattractively as possible. I checked out the game at Halftime - 35-30! Granted, the teams made it a bit more entertaining in the second half, but for a minute I thought we were going to see a final score of 69-64. Even if you're not a Laker fan, you have to feel good that the Finals aren't going to come down to Spurs v. Pistons, as those games would be lucky to break a combined point total of 125.