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2008-2009 Playoff Predictions

Scott Mitchell — Fri, 17 Apr 2009 15:07:00 GMT

Each year I post my (insanely inaccurate) playoff predictions prior to the start of the postseason. I some rare circumstances my picks are spot on - such as my prediction last year of a Lakers / Celtics Finals with the Celtics winning in 6 - but most of the time my guesses are horrific and gum up my entire bracket (such as last year's pick of the Wizards beating the Cavs in Round 1... whoops) or are just so divorced from reality, as in the case of picking that the Celtics would sweep the Hawks in Round 1. This year I didn't have as much time to pontificate on my playoff picks because the Western Conference seedings weren't finalized until the last day of the regular season. With such a tight bunching between the 2nd and 8th-seeded teams, every game this regular season mattered. From Chris Tomasson in Nuggets Can Thank Papovich for No. 2 Seed:

In San Antonio, they remember the Alamo. They also might remember Feb. 3. That was the night Spurs coach Gregg Popovich rested most of his top players against the Nuggets at the Pepsi Center. Playing the second game of a back-to-back situation after winning the previous night at Golden State, Popovich didn’t use Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili or Michael Finley. Although Ginobili had gotten hurt the night before, Popovich gave no concrete reason for resting the others.
The Spurs J.V. team battled well. But they fell 104-96 to assure that Denver won the season series 2-1. Well, guess what? The Spurs and the Nuggets both finished the season 54-28, with Denver, due to the tiebreaker, getting the No. 2 seed in the West and San Antonio settling for No. 3. Had Popovich used his top players that night and the Spurs won, San Antonio would be the No. 2 seed and would be in line for homecourt advantage for the first two rounds of the playoffs. Of course, an extra loss would have meant the Nuggets would have finished the season 53-29. That would have resulted in them losing the Northwest Division to Portland (54-28) and losing a tiebreaker to Houston (53-29) for the No. 4 seed.

Let's get started with this year's picks! I've put the winning team name from each series in bold.

Eastern Conference

Round 1
(1) Cleveland beats (8) Detroit - The Pistons have had a disappointing season marred by a disastrous trade. Cleveland and LeBron have been unstoppable, netting the league's best record with only two loses on their home court all year. Cleveland will win this series easily in 5. I forsee the Cavs being up 3-0 when the Pistons win a meaningless Game 4, only to have the Cavs dominantly close the series in Game 5 back in Cleveland (although a four game sweep wouldn't surprise me in the least).

(4) Atlanta loses to (5) Miami - D-Wade is a beast and here's the scary part - he could have been a Detroit Piston! I've mentioned this before many times, but we, as a society, can never forget - the Pistons took Darko as their #2 pick in the draft over D-Wade, Carmelo Anthony, and Chris Bosh. Ok, I feel better now. I see Wade putting forth a Herculean effort that cannot be stopped or matched by the Hawks. Heat in 6.

(3) Orlando beats (6) Philly - While Orlando has slipped a bit in the last bit of the season, they're in a perfect position now. They won't have to worry about the Cavs until the Conference Finals and they'd face a depleted Celtics team in Round 2. Philly will be a road bump for the Magic, who will win in 5.

(2) Boston over (7) Chicago - First, the bad news: Celtics Coach Doc Rivers announced that, after sitting out several games late in the regular season, Garnett will likely be out for the entire playoffs with a bum knee. While the Celtics have won the vast majority of their games during Garnett's absenses this season, one wonders how they will fare in the playoffs without the services of their emotional leader. This first round should be a good test as Chicago is the team that poses the greatest threat to any of the top-seeded teams in the first round. However, I don't think the Bulls have any real chance here - they're still too young and too inexperienced. There will be some interesting and close games, but the Celtics will prevail in 6.

Round 2
(1) Cleveland beats (5) Miami - Another walk in the park for the Cavs. I expect Wade will have at least one phenomenal game that overwhelms the Cavs - and the Heat have had a resounding win against the Cavs in Miami this year - but this series will serve as an appetizer for the main course - the Eastern Conference Finals! Cleveland in 5.

(2) Boston beats (3) Orlando - The Celtics are missing Garnett, they're old and tired from a six game series with the Bulls. The Magic are young and hungry and rested. It will be a good series with a couple of close games, but the Celtics experience and mettle will see them into the ECF. Celtics in 6, possibly 7.

Round 3
(1) Cleveland beats (2) Boston - The Cavs have everything in their favor going into the ECF - two "easy" Rounds, a very hungry and motivated LeBron, and a depleted Celtics squad firmly between their sights. The Celtics will have enough juice left in them to win one game at home, but the Cavs will overwhelm them in this series, winning in 5.

Western Conference

Round 1
(1) Los Angeles beats (8) Utah - The Lakers are the favored team in the West; the Jazz have been struggling late and have questions around the health of their star forward, Carlos Boozer. The Lakers bested the Jazz earlier this week. Things are not looking up for the Jazz. Even Jazz Coach Jerry Sloan admitted things are pretty bleak in Utah. While most analysts have written off the Jazz, I think they're going to give the Lakers two or three tough games, winning one or two. The Lakers have this series in the books barring any freak injuries, but the Lakers will have a couple of rough patches, especially seeing as how they are a team whose attention and energy is not always tightly focused. Lakers in 5, maybe 6.

(4) Portland beats (5) Houston - Portland is young, hungry, and talented. Houston is still struggling to get out of the first round of the playoffs this decade. I think this will be a heck of a series with some memorable games, but in the end I think Portland's youth and home court advantage will give them the series in 7.

(3) San Antonio beats (6) Dallas - The Spurs are old and without Manu, and Duncan's knees have started to deteriorate on him, but they still are the Spurs, they still know how to win in the postseason, and they still have a great coach in Popavich. The Mavericks biggest problem is their lack of defensive intensity and their inability to stop fast guards, like Tony Parker. There may be a close game or two in this series, but I see the Spurs pulling through without much ado, and winning in 5 or 6.

(2) Denver loses to (7) New Orleans - The Hornets are beat up and the Nuggets have home court advantage, but I think that if there is going to be one upset in the first round, this series will be it. Denver always seems one boneheaded play or emotional outburst away from a full-fledged breakdown, and Denver's stars have never seemed as hungry as the likes of Chris Paul. Granted, the Nuggets have the Hornets beat on talent, but I think last year's push into the second round and their hunger will give the Hornets the edge and the ability to best the Nuggets in a tight 7 game series.

Round 2
(1) Los Angeles beats (4) Portland - This should be a great matchup. Two fun teams who will bring a lot of energy and excitement to the floor. The Blazers will have an exciting win or two, but I see the Lakers winning this series in 5 or 6. The difference comes down to postseason experience. There will be a few key plays in key games that the Lakers will capitalize on and that will be the difference.

(3) San Antonio beats (7) New Orleans - This year's rematch of last year's WCSFs series will be just as exciting and will have the same outcome - Spurs in 7.

Round 3

(1) Los Angeles beat (3) San Antonio - The Lakers are too fast and too deep, too young and too hungry. The Spurs are too old, without Manu, and worn from a longer and more depleting Round 1 and Round 2. Much like last year's WCF, the Lakers will blow by the Spurs, winning in 5.

NBA Finals

(1) Cleveland loses to (1) Los Angeles - The Lakers have had the Cavs number this season, winning both games against the Cavs and handing Cleveland their first home loss (and only home loss until the last game of the season). The Lakers are hungrier, too, having gotten to the Finals last year, but losing in 6. This year, with a healthy Bynum, with Phil gunning for 10 rings, and Kobe needing a ring to cement his legacy and to prove that he can win without Shaq, the Lakers will take this series in convincing fashion, winning in 6 and being crowned the world champions!

Welcome to the Second Round

Scott Mitchell — Tue, 06 May 2008 03:36:00 GMT

What a first round! While there were a number of snoozer series that lacked a single competitive moment (I'm looking in your general direction, Denver), there were plenty of exciting battles, some where I expected, others in less expected series.

While the Spurs/Suns series had some exciting moments - Game 1 was the most amazing first round basketball game I've ever had the pleasure of watching - it was not nearly as competitive as I expected. What went wrong? I don't blame Steve Nash; nor do I think Coach D'Antoni deserves the blame. Rather, the blame lies squarely with the Phoenix Sun's front office. They've had personality issues with true quality players (Joe Johnson, Shawn Marion), they've traded away key role players (Kurt Thomas), they've always had too shallow a bench, and they've given up far to many draft picks over the years for cash and non-essential players. Bill Simmons has a much more thought out and in depth discussion on this topic that's definitely worth reading: A Requiem for the S.S.O.L Era in Phoenix.

How about the Hawks taking the Celtics to seven? Who could have foreseen that, especially after the Celtics thumped the Hawks in Games 1 and 2? But the Hawks never gave up (at least not at home) and gave the Celtics a run for their money. While the Celtics prevailed, you have to worry that going to the wire might shake their confidence and give other teams in the Eastern Conference more confidence.

Another team I gave far too little credit to in my playoff predictions was the New Orleans Hornets. They dusted the veteran Mavericks (and are giving the Spurs a run for their money in the second round) showing that sometimes youth, energy, and raw talent is more important than experience. Props to Chris Paul who, in his second year in the league, it showing glimpses of being a future Hall of Famer. (Speaking of Paul, check out the following video, which details his first high school game after learning about his grandfather being murdered. Chris went out and scored exactly 61 points, one point for each of his grandfather's years, and then walked off the court and collapsed into his father's arms.)

And now we're into the second round. Based on my pre-postseason picks, I am 6 of 8 (I picked the Mavs over the Hornets and the Wiz over the Cavs). I picked the Lakers over the Jazz, the Spurs over the Mavs, the Celtics over the Wiz, and the Pistons over the Magic. I think I'll be 3 of 4 on my picks here. I expect that the Lakers, Celtics, and Pistons will advance, but with the way the Hornets are outplaying the Spurs, it's looking like it will be the Hornets advancing to the Western Conference Finals. (Let me say it again - Chris Paul is pure amazement.)

This postseason is living up to its hype - a number of exciting and competitive series. Go Lakers!

First Round Impressions

Scott Mitchell — Wed, 23 Apr 2008 03:24:00 GMT

Just before the start of the playoffs I submitted my annual playoff predictions, in which I see the Celtics beating the Lakers in a classic Finals series. I still hold firm to that earlier prediction, but clearly some of my other first round picks were significantly off the mark.

For starters, I thought Dallas's veterans and playoff experience would trump the young New Orleans Hornets, but as I write this the Hornets are up 2-0 in the series, with two convincing wins and two monster games from Chris Paul. And then, in the Eastern Conference, I thought the Wizards would prevail over the Cavs, but things are looking bleak with the Wiz down two games in the series and LeBron looking as hungry and playing as well as ever. Lesson learned - do not bet against King James. It reminds me of Jordan in his prime. Only a fool would bet against a Jordan team losing a series or a must-win game. MJ just wouldn't allow it. He had a force of will, a talent level, and - let's be honest - more than his fair share of foul calls in his favor. In the 1990s, MJ-led teams participated in 26 playoff series and lost only 1 (the Eastern Conference Semi-Finals against the Orlando Magic in the 1994/1995 season, and that shouldn't really count against Jordan seeing as he didn't start start that season until after the mid-way point). One day we may very well think of LeBron in the same way.

I also predicted that the Pistons would quickly dispatch of the 76ers: "A lot of people knock Detroit for being overconfident. From past years, it seems that Detroit has believed that it can "Turn it on" when it needs to, and win pivotal games. For that reason, and because of Philly's strong play in the latter half of this season (vaulting themselves from the lottery to the #7 spot), they assume Detroit will have trouble with this team. I disagree. I think Detroit will come into this series with a renewed sense of focus and will dispatch of the 76ers in 5." Whoops. What can I say? The Pistons came out flat and unenergetic against a young team with nothing to lose, and gave up the first game of the series while at home. I still think the Pistons will win the series, but their lackluster effort, while expected, is disappointing and does not bode well for them when they have to face the Celtics in the Conference Finals.

The Lakers looked good against the Nuggets on Sunday. Neither team played any defense and the result was a layup drill. Early in the first half the Lakers had a big lead, but let the Nuggets charge back and recapture the lead going into half time. But thanks to a third quarter collapse, the Lakers prevailed, and won big. The Lakers abject lack of defense is worrying, and I think it will come to haunt them in future rounds, especially when they have to face the Spurs in the Conference Finals. But for now, I'll just enjoy the high scoring, fast flying three remaining games of this first round against Denver.

Go Lakers!

2007-2008 Playoff Predictions

Scott Mitchell — Sat, 19 Apr 2008 16:53:00 GMT

Each year I post my (insanely inaccurate) playoff predictions prior to the start of the postseason. I some rare circumstances my picks are spot on, but most of the time I take a gamble or two and end up blowing the whole postseason (like last year, I picked the Dallas Mavericks to beat the Detroit Pistons in the Finals). This year I didn't have as much time to pontificate on my playoff picks because the Western Conference seedings weren't finalized until the last day of the regular season. The Denver Nuggets - the eight seed - have won 50 games this year. That would have netted them the four seed in the East.

Let's get started with this year's picks! I've put the winning team name from each series in bold.

Eastern Conference

Round 1
(1) Boston beats (8) Atlanta - I don't think the Hawks have much of a chance this postseason. They are facing, arguably, the best team in the entire NBA. Moreover, the Hawks have been playing poorly the last part of this season, they have very little playoff experience, and were swept by the Celtics during the regular season. Boston in 4.

(4) Cleveland loses to (5) Washington - The Cavs have had a disappointing year, culminating with a multi-player, mid-season trade that was, at best, a lateral move; at worst it was a step back. The Wizards, on the other hand, have gelled nicely as the season wound down, and Gilbert Arenas is back in the lineup, now giving his team a boost off the bench. The only thing the Cavs have going for them is the fact that LeBron is a beast and he can, single-handedly, win games, as was evinced in last year's Conference Finals. This series should be enticing because this is the third consecutive year these two teams have met in the first round of the playoffs, with the Cavs winning the first two meetings. This time I predict the Wizards will win in 6.

(3) Orlando beats (6) Toronto - Toronto has had a disappointing season, while Orlando has done better than expected, especially with the emergence of Hedo Terkoglu. Along with Detroit and Boston, the Magic are the only 50+ win team in the East. I think this will be Dwight Howard's year to shine in the playoffs. Orlando in 5.

(2) Detroit over (7) Philly - A lot of people knock Detroit for being overconfident. From past years, it seems that Detroit has believed that it can "Turn it on" when it needs to, and win pivotal games. For that reason, and because of Philly's strong play in the latter half of this season (vaulting themselves from the lottery to the #7 spot), they assume Detroit will have trouble with this team. I disagree. I think Detroit will come into this series with a renewed sense of focus and will dispatch of the 76ers in 5.

Round 2
(1) Boston beats (5) Washington - The Celtics are a much better team than the Wizards, which will be plainly evident by the end of this series. Boston in 5.

(2) Detroit beats (3) Orlando - While the Magic are clearly the third best team in the East, there's a fairly substantial divide between them and the Pistons. Orlando will win a game or two this series, and may be competitive in all of them, but I'm picking the Pistons in 6. Which sets up the Eastern Conference Final everyone's been waiting for...

Round 3
(1) Boston beats (2) Detroit - These two teams had some memorable regular season matchups, so this ought to be an exciting and hard-fought series. The Pistons clearly have the experience, having been to the ECF for several straight years now, but the Celtics are clearly the best team in the League this year. Granted, Garnett and company lack Finals experience, whereas the Pistons have been there twice in the last four years, and the Pistons enjoy a team chemistry that comes from years of playing together, whereas the nucleus of Garnett, Pierce, and Allen is not even one year old. Still, I like the Celtics and see them winning in 7.

Western Conference

Round 1
(1) Los Angeles beats (8) Denver - Denver is a team that, on paper, should be better than an eight seed, but this team has chemistry problems and consistency problems. Earlier this year Denver had won game where they scored more than 120 and then, the next night, gave up for than 120 in a loss. And they've exhibited little to no defense all season. This plays into the Laker's strength as they have a fast and furious offense. The Lakers main problem, in my opinion, is their lack of focus on defense. They've had a number of games the second half of this season where they had a large lead only to let it evaporate (like the 30 point lead they held against the Hornets only to end up winning the game by a solitary point. But with the Nuggets playing D-less ball, too, I can't see the Lakers blowing big leads, which I think they will have plenty of. The Lakers superior bench will separate them against most teams this postseason. Lakers in 5.

(4) Utah beats (5) Houston - Poor Tracy MacGrady has never been out of the first round in the playoffs and I can't see him and the Rockets getting past the Jazz this year, especially considering that the Jazz have home court advantage. Jazz in 5.

(3) San Antonio beats (6) Phoenix - This series is, by far, the most exciting first-round series I've ever witnessed. These two teams beat one another up in the Conference Semi-Finals last year; in response to their loss, the Suns waent big this season, trading Marrion for Shaq in February to better match up with the West's big men, like Tim Duncan. It took some time for the Suns and Shaq to mesh, but things are looking up. As long as the Big Fella can stay out of foul trouble, he should be able to dampen Duncan's scoring and rebounds. Additionally, the Spurs aren't getting any younger and aren't at their healthiest as the postseason draws near (with Manu and Barry having some health issues). But they have the experience, having gone deep in the playoffs every year since 1999. Given that, the Suns thin bench, and home court advantage, I have to pick the Spurs over the Suns in this series. But regardless of the final outcome, this series promises to be dramatic and exciting. Spurs in 7.

(2) New Orleans loses to (7) Dallas - The Hornets had a miraculous season, with Chris Paul playing lights out and in serious contention for League MVP. But they are too dependent on Paul. Take him out of the game and they fall apart. I think we'll see the Mavs trapping Paul with the ball, getting the rock out of his hands. What then? Yes, the Mavs have their playoff demons, and the Kidd trade has, so far, been an expensive wash, but I like the Mavs in this one. I think this is the worst matchup for the Hornets. They would have fared better against the Rockets or Nuggets. Mavs in 6.

Round 2
(1) Los Angeles beats (4) Utah - This should be a great matchup. Two great teams; two great coaches. The Jazz have a strong nucleus that has gotten deep into the playoffs the last two years. However, I think the Lakers have the edge here, assuming everyone stays healthy. Plus, I don't think the Jazz can win reliably on the road, and the Lakers have home court advantage. I see the Lakers winning the first two, the Jazz the next two, then the Lakers the two after that, to close it out in 6 on the road.

(3) San Antonio beats (7) Dallas - This Texas clash should be a great series, just like the Conference Finals two years back. I wouldn't be surprised to see this game go to the limit, with the Spurs winning the pivotal Game 7 in San Antonio.

Round 3

(1) Los Angeles beat (3) San Antonio - The Lakers are too fast and too deep. I think they'll blow past the Spurs, who will be exhausted from their back-to-back seven games series against the Suns and Mavs. Lakers in 6.

NBA Finals

(1) Boston beats (1) Los Angeles - Ah, a Celtics/Lakers Finals series - pure nostalgia! Boston had the best record and was, without doubt, the best team in the League this year. Granted, they played in the Leastern Conference, but they had winning records against elite West teams and Garnett, Allen, and Pierce will outmatch the Lakers. Allen and Pierce are far better than Odom and Gasol. And although the Lakers have a much deeper bench, I see a rested Celtics outplaying the boys in Purple and Gold. Celtics in 6.

Five Stories to Follow to this NBA Season

Scott Mitchell — Fri, 19 Oct 2007 00:52:00 GMT

It's that time of year again. With Major League Baseball wrapping up its playoffs, the NBA regular season is right around the corner! The season tips off the last week of October (with the Lakers squaring off against the Houston Rockets on Tuesday, October 30th in the Staples Center). The NBA season is a long, grueling 82 games, and it can be hard to stay interested and focused during the regular season (just ask Shaq). Here are five stories to follow during the first half of the season to keep your interest piqued:

(1) Kobe Bryant and the Incessant Trade Rumors
Early in the off-season, Kobe Bryant demanded to the Lakers front office that they either surround him with some talent, or trade him. Kobe's frustration is understandable - he's the premier player on a team that's mostly composed of scrubs. Lamar Odom is better than average, Luke Walton has great basketball IQ, and Andrew Bynum possesses the most potential upside of any young Laker, but imagine how frustrating it is for a fierce competitor like Kobe to play with a starting lineup that includes the likes of Smush Parker and Kwame Brown. Yeck.

The drama went through assorted peaks and troughs throughout the course of the summer, with Kobe quieting down for stretches, only to come back to light with videos of himself deriding teammate Kwame Brown. And what did the Lakers do this offseason? Did the net a superstar like Kevin Garnett? Did they trade Kobe to another team? No. They sat pat, content with doing nothing more than signing Derek "Mr. 0.4 seconds" Fisher.

Despite the lack of moves in the offseason, Kobe showed up to training camp on time and with a seemingly positive attitude. But the drama couldn't stay down for long, and culminated recently with Lakers owner Dr. Buss saying that they're still considering trade options for Kobe, and the media getting all excited since Kobe supposedly cleaned up his locker a bit and hasn't been playing in the preseason games.

Will Kobe get traded this season? I would hope that a team who has a player of Kobe Bryant's caliber would do their damndest to hang on to him. But the Laker's recent history proves otherwise. Rather than making Shaq and Kobe kiss and makeup, they traded Shaq - who some would argue is the best player in the history of the NBA - for pennies on the dollar. So nothing would surprise me here.

If the Lakers do trade Kobe, I hope they blow the team up and start from scratch. What I don't want to see is the Lakers follow the New York Knicks formula: grossly overpay for suspect veterans with personality disorders and medical conditions and pray that everything works out. Personally, I can't see Kobe leaving. I don't think there are enough teams out there with cap space or the onions to make such a trade. The Lakers aren't just going to give Kobe away (at least I hope not), so there must be something substantial in return. In any event, I forsee one of two things happening this season:

Kobe is traded and the Lakers plummet to obscurity with one of the worst records in the West.
Kobe remains a Laker, the team does mediocre and enters the playoffs in the number 7 spot, which will extend their season for another five games.

Meh.

(2) Kevin Durant's Induction into the League
This year looked like the most exciting batch of rookies since 2003 when LeBron, D-Wade, Chris Bosh, and Carmello all joined the L. Granted, this year's rookie class is not nearly as deep as in 2003, but there were two key headlines: Oden and Durant. As luck would have it, Greg Oden's season ended before it even began, taking the wind out of the rookie class's sails. Even though we'll have to wait another year for Oden's premier, we still will get to enjoy Durant's. Will Durant be able to make an impact his rookie season, or will Durant's production be pedestrian? Given his wiry frame, many have questioned his strength and inside presence. Such sentiments were strengthened when Sonics coach PJ Carlesimo moved Durant to the shooting guard spot. Durant's natural position is that of a small forward, but it's likely that Carlesimo doubted Durant's presence down low.

Despite his size, Durant has speed, skills, and the heart of a champion. I'm sure he'll have some very impressive highlights and games this season. Whether he can make as great of an impact as the likes of BronBron, D-Wade, Chris Bosh, and Carmello Anthony did in their first seasons remains to be seen, but it should sure be fun watching.

(3) The Battle for the West
We haven't seen parity in the Eastern and Western conferences since the 1990s. This decade, so far, has been the decade of the Western Conference, and this year will be no exception. There are so many strong teams in the West, with the Mavs, Spurs, and Suns topping the list. But don't forget about Utah, Houston, or Denver. These second-tier West teams are better than virtually all of the Eastern Conference teams.

It will be interesting to see what teams are battling for the top spot in the Western Conference. I'm confident the Spurs will be at or near the top, as they have been sice the late 90s. But how will the Mavs and Suns fare? The Mavs suffered a meltdown last season with their playoff loss to Golden State. Couple that with their NBA Finals meltdown against the Heat the year before, and you begin to wonder if this team can still have the mental toughness needed to dominate in an ultra-competitive league. And what about the Suns? They still have their core players together, but Nash is another year older, Amare is having more knee surgery, and Shawn Marion is demanding that he be traded. Trouble in paradise!

Will any of the second-tier Western Conference teams make the leap this year? Iverson and Anthony have had a full year together in Denver. Yao Ming continues to show signs of improvement. And perhaps a softer, gentler Jerry Sloan is all that Andrei Kirilenko needs to return to his former, dominant self.

(4) The New Celtics
While the Lakers sat on their hands this off-season, the Boston Celtics sure did not. They signed two All-Star caliber veterans to complement Paul Pierce: Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett. These additions instantly make the Celtics a real contender in the Eastern Conference, where even the most mediocre teams are better than average. I am especially intrigued by the addition of Kevin Garnett. Yes, Ray Allen is a nice pickup, but Allen is older and a step slower than he was in his prime, and he plays the same role and position as Pierce. Garnett, however, is younger, more hungry, and a true physical specimen. His intensity borders on insanity; his drive to win is at its zenith. And he has a level of talent around him that he hasn't since Cassell and Sprewell were Timberwolves. (And don't forget - that team of Garnett, Cassell, and Sprewell made it to the WCF before being overmatched by the Lakers.)

The Celtics should be the most fun team to watch in the East this year. Consider the alternatives: for the Heat, Shaq is another year older, and D-Wade will miss significant stretches of the season; while Cleveland and Detroit were last year's strongest East teams, neither made any significant moves this offseason. Garnett and crew should do well this season. Hopefully these veterans can gell and lead Boston to the NBA Finals.

(5) The Referee Situation
The NBA faced its greatest public relations nightmare this off-season when the FBI netted one Tim Donaghy as an "inside man" for the mob. Donaghy allegedly shaved points for mob bosses to make right on outstanding debts. This couldn't have come at a worse time for the League, as many fans have been complaining about shoddy refereeing and suspect calls, such as Joey Crawford's unexplainable ejection of a benched Tim Duncan. With the charges against Donaghy, you can expect the media and fans alike to scrutinize the referees' jobs to an even greater extend. Likewise, expect to see several reviews and reports from the NBA front office when there is a pivotal foul call or ejection or non-call during the regular season and playoffs. These refs are going to be watched closer than ever and I wouldn't be surprised to see front office action this year in the forms of fines or official statements relating to calls whereas the same incident last year wouldn't have even warranted a comment.

I don't envy the NBA refs this season, not one bit. Because of Donaghy's hijinks, fans will assume refs guilty until proven innocent. Sucks to be them.

All in all, this year has several promising story lines that should help keep even the most distracted person's interest during the mundane regular season. And even if these stories don't pique your interest, it's just 82 games until the real season begins!

Midway Through the First Round...

Scott — Sat, 28 Apr 2007 19:18:00 GMT

We're nearing the midway point of the first round of the NBA playoffs... let's see how my predictions are faring.

Let's start with the East...

I picked Detroit to sweep Orlando, and they did that this afternoon.
I predicted that the Cavs would sweep the Wizards, and they are playing right now with the Cavs looking to go up 3-0 in the series and well on track for a four game sweep.
My Miami-Chicago series pick put the Bulls winning in 7, although with their current 3-0 series lead and Miami's lucklaster play, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Heat swept. Nor would I be surprised if they won Game 4 only to lose back in Chicago in Game 5. Of course, technically the series is not yet over, but I find it hard to imagine that this Heat team has the resolve to battle back from a three game deficit.
Finally, the Nets-Raptors are keeping it interesting, as I suspected. The Nets currently hold a 2-1 lead after dispatching a thorough butt-kicking last night. I still like the Nets in 6.

Moving to the Western Conference...

Despite the Mavs having lost all three regular season games against the Warriors, and casting aside the Warriors's strong end to the regular season, I picked the Mavs in 4. After last night's W, the Warriors lead the series 2-1. Whoops. I honestly expected the Mavs to play better ball, to not get out-run by the Warriors. I still do think the Mavs will win as they're the better team and the Warriors's style of play is usual inconsistent. Regardless, this is going to be a series the Mavs are going to have to work hard for.
I picked Houston beating the Jazz in five, and I'll stick with that prediction. The Rockets currently lead the series 2-1 with Game 4 tonight in Utah.
I predicted that the Suns would best the Lakers in five, as well. After a rather improbible win on Thursday, the Lakers trail the Suns two games to one with Game 4 in LA on Sunday. I expect the Suns to resume their dominant form tomorrow and win comfortably, then return to Phoenix and close the series out.
Lastly, I picked the Spurs in 6. This series is the slowest moving of the eight, with only two games played in total thus far (although they do play later tonight). The series is knotted at one game apiece and heading to Denver. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Spurs take Game 3, then Nuggets Game 4, and then the Spurs Games 5 and 6.

2006-2007 Playoff Predictions

Scott — Thu, 19 Apr 2007 12:55:00 GMT

Each year I post my playoff predictions before the start of the playoffs, from the first round through the Finals. In last year's predictions I mistakenly picked the Pistons besting the Heat and the Spurs beating the Mavs, resulting in a Spurs-Pistons rematch with the Spurs taking the title again. Whoops.

Let's get started with this year's picks! I've put the winning team name from each series in bold.

Eastern Conference

Round 1
(1) Detroit beats (8) Orlando - Orlando has lost all four games to Detroit this season, which does not bode well for them in the playoffs. Also, Detroit is a much deeper and experienced team. Detroit in 4.

(4) Miami loses to (5) Chicago - While a lot of analysts are picking Miami to make it back to the Finals, I think they are going to have a hard time with D-Wade's injured shoulder and an older and slower Shaq. Last year the Bulls gave the Heat a fit in the playoffs, and that was before picking up big Ben Wallace. The Heat clearly have the experience, but I'll go with the younger, hungrier team in a fiercely fought series. Bulls in 7.

(2) Cleveland beats (7) Washington - No Caron Butler and no Gilbert Arenas makes this series as exciting as watching paint dry. The Wizard's record in April is 3 wins to 11 loses. Cavs in 4.

(3) Toronto loses to (6) New Jersey - Toronto has a promising future, but at this stage in the game they are too young and inexperienced to beat a veteran team in a best of seven series. There will be some close and exciting games, but in the end the Nets will clinch this series in 6.

Conference Semi-Finals (Round 2)
(1) Detroit beats (6) New Jersey - two teams with experienced, veteran teams promises to make this series an exciting one. If, by excitement, you mean watching games where the cumulative score fails to break 160. Regardless, many of these games will come down to final defensive stands. It will be a good series, but the Pistons will take it in 6.

(2) Cleveland beats (5) Chicago - after having a the equivalent of a week off in playing the depleted Wizards, the Cavs will be rested and out-play the Bulls on both ends of the court. However, the Bulls will stay in this series and make it interesting, taking it to a dramatic game 7.

Conference Finals (Round 3)
(1) Detroit beats (2) Cleveland - this game will bring back the ECSF excitement from last year, when the Cavs took the Pistons to Game 7, and I see this series going the distance, as well. And just like last year's series, I expect Game 7 to be a ho-hum experience with the Pistons controlling the game. Pistons in 7.

Western Conference

Round 1
(1) Dallas beats (8) Golden State - Yeah, the Warriors have a 3-0 regular season record against the Mavs, but I expect the real Mavs to show up and play with a vengence. The Mavs have had a sole goal this year - to get back to and win the Finals. I assure you that the Warriors will not hinder their quest. Dallas in 4.

(4) Utah loses to (5) Houston - the Rockets are rolling and Yao and T-Mac are healthy and are ready to silence their critics. Of course, winning this series wins you an invitation to get stomped by Dallas. Houston in 5.

(3) San Antonio beats (6) Denver - the West is home to the three best teams in the League, with the Spurs being one of them. They are well-coached, experienced, and have a strong front court and back court with better than average role players. Despite Denver's dynamic duo of Iverson and Anthony, the Spurs will win this series in six and the series won't be as close as some might expect.

(2) Phoenix beats (7) Los Angeles Lakers - while the Lakers/Suns series from last year went 7 and was full of exciting moments, don't expect this year's matchup to be nearly as exciting. The Suns are stronger this year with a healthy Amare, and are motivated to get to the Finals in as few games as possible. Also, the Lakers are entering the playoffs with a pretty miserable final month and are lucky to hold on to the 7 seed. While Kobe's raw talent may lead the Lakers to a victory (or two), the Suns will make mincemeat of the Lakers this postseason. Suns in 5.

Western Conference Semi-Finals (Round 2)
(1) Dallas beats (5) Houston - another brick in the wall for Dallas on their way to the NBA Finals. Dallas in 5 in a one-sided series.

(2) Phoenix beats (3) San Antonio - except for the WCF, this will be the best series of the entire playoffs. The games will be tight, competitive, and high-scoring. Nash will dazzle with his passes, Amare will explode to the basket, and Duncan will hit big shot after big shot, showing little to no emotion. This will be a roller coaster series with the Suns winning at home in Game 7.

Western Conference Finals (Round 3)
(1) Dallas beats (2) Phoenix - this will be a series for the ages, one where you will want to watch every game. And in the end, the depth of the Mavs bench will be the deciding factor, as the Suns run out of gas late down the stretch. Mavs in 7.

NBA Finals
Dallas beats Detroit - Dallas is the best team in the League this year and will rightfully win the title. The series will have its share of blowout games, but will also have one or two exciting ones. I see the Mavs winning in 5, capped by Mark Cuban running onto the court and acting like an excited fan rather than a stiff owner, which is appreciated by this blogger.

No Big Surprises in the Playoffs...

Scott — Thu, 27 Apr 2006 01:15:00 GMT

No big surprises after the first couple of games in the playoffs. The "Contenders" - San Antonio, Detroit, Miami, and Dallas - all hold 2-0 leads. Some people pegged the Bulls or Grizz as the surprise teams, and while 2-0 isn't the same as 4-0, I can't fathom any of the "Contenders" dropping four of the next five games.

Also, as I predicted, the Clippers are playing well despite their year end malaise. And the Suns/Lakers series is seeming to get more interesting, with a close game on Sunday and the Lakers up by 15 at half time. Going back to LA with the series knotted at 1-1 it vital if the Lakers hope in winning this series. Regardless of their half time lead and the possibility of a tied series, I don't see the Lakers winning this one, as the Suns have too much offensive firepower. Unless the Lakers can have monumental games from Odom and Kawme, they're going to have a hard time making it to the WCSF.

And what of the Pacers/Nets and Cavs/Wiz series? Those are shaping up nicely, too. Indy got a lucky win on Sunday, which will probably be their only one of the series. The Cavs/Wiz, I predict, will go 6 or 7, with the Wiz prevailing (only to get smacked around by Detroit).

The great games will commence in the Semi Finals... Dallas v. San Antonio being the premier matchup. And of course the conference finals promise to be delightfully entertaining as well.

2005-2006 Playoff Predictions

Scott — Thu, 20 Apr 2006 12:54:00 GMT

Time for this year's insanely inaccurate playoff predictions! But before we begin, let's review my oracle skills from last season, when I made my 2004-2005 playoff predictions. My Eastern Conference picks were nearly perfect. I ended up picking all of the first round winners and did predict the Pistons besting the Heat in the ECF. In the West, however, I took a beating as I ignorantly guessed that Denver would upset the Spurs.... which kind of ruined the whole Western Conference (although I did predict the Suns making it to the WCF). This year I'm going to put a little more faith in the Spurs!

Let's get started!

Eastern Conference

Round 1
(1) Detroit beats (8) Milwaukee - Milwaukee has the least envious position of having to face the winningest, most veteran and poised team in the NBA. Barring Chauncey and Rip running into each other leading to season-ending injuries, followed up by Ben Wallace running over to see if his team mates are all right and colliding with Rasheed, ending both of their seasons, I don't see how the Bucks can win four games out of seven against this team. In fact, I'm thinking.... sweep!

(4) Cleveland loses to (5) Washington - Washington has a bit more playoff experience and while LeBron is a man child, he's still lacks the inexperience. It's OK, BronBron, MJ didn't reach the second round of the playoffs until his fourth season.

(3) New Jersey beats (6) Indiana - With New Jersey playing on fire lately and Indiana still enjoying their descent from what could have been since the Ron Artest mele, I see this one over with in 5 with NJ dominating throughout. They'll need to win quickly, too, as Kidd could use the rest.

(2) Miami beats (7) Chicago - Don't bet against The Deisel. Yes, Shaq's another year older and another year slower, but he's still The M.D.E. Combine that with Dwayne Wade and it's hard to see this Bulls team winning more than 2 (if that).

Round 2
(1) Detroit beats (5) Washington - More of the same from the Pistons (assuming no injuries), besting the Wizards in 5.

(2) Miami beats (3) New Jersey - While the Heat are a bit banged up and in a bit of a funk, and while the Nets are playing the best ball all season, I still think the Heat have more options and can beat teams in more ways. This assumes that Shaq is able to ratchet it up a notch and Wade is 100%. This should probably be a very interesting series, but I think the Heat will take it in 6.

Round 3
(1) Detroit beats (2) Miami - A rematch of last year's ECFs. However this time the series isn't nearly as close and the Pistons win in 6. Pat Reilly proceeds to detonate the Heat roster once again in the off-season.

Western Conference

Round 1
(1) San Antonio beats (8) Sacramento - while the Spurs aren't completely healthy, they are the defending NBA champs and have a solid roster of veterans and play makers. I've learned my lesson from last year - do not doubt the Spurs!

(4) Dallas over Memphis (5) - It's a shame that Dallas is seeded fourth (as Mark Cuban will happily tell you), but no one will regret that more than the Grizz, who have yet to win a playoff series in the franchise history and aren't going to start now. The big question for Mavs fans - will Dirk show up this postseason? He'll need to if the Mavs have any hope of reaching the WCF or beyond.

(6) LA Clippers over (3) Denver - this is one of my two “upset” picks. While the Clippers have been playing lackluster basketball the last few weeks of the season, it would be nice to see them actually have some impact in the postseason for the first time in a loooooooooong time. Should be a good series. Keep on eye on Cassell and his leadership. Clippers in 7.

(2) Phoenix over (7) LA Lakers - even though the Lakers bested the Suns in the final season meeting, that final game was sans Steve Nash and included 43 from Kobe. With Nash, the Suns won the other three games against the Lakers this season. I expect Kobe will have two (or three?) big games in this series, which should be fun to watch, but I can't fathom the Lakers winning four out of seven. Phoenix in 5, unless Kobe has multiple Herculean efforts, in which case Suns in 6.

Round 2
(1) San Antonio over (4) Dallas - this is the hardest matchup to predict, in my opinion, and will likely be one of the best to watch. I have to give the edge to the defending champs here, since Dirk has yet to prove himself able to step it up in the playoffs. Last year there was a lot of finger-pointing when the Ls started to pile up. This year the Mavs will need to put any dissent behind them and learn to prosper as a team. And Dirk will have to be able to say, “Give me the ball,“ in crunch time and, more importantly, make the big play.

(2) Phoenix loses to (6) LA Clippers - here's the other “upset” pick, another risky guess. Regardless of the eventual winner, I think this is a series that goes six games, minimum. I pick the Clips, in part, because I'm hoping to see a ray of sunlight into the otherwise dreary lives of Clippers fans.

Round 3
(1) San Antonio over (6) LA Clippers - after a brutal WCSF series against the Mavs, the Spurs will have it easy against the Clippers, out playing them with ease and winning in 5.

NBA Finals

Detroit beats San Antonio in 7 - another great Finals matchup. Like last year, there will be some blowout games, but the series will go 6, if not 7, and have a fair mix of down-to-the-wire games, with the Pistrons (if they can stay healthy!) taking the title back from the Spurs.

My Insanely Inaccurate 2004-2005 Predictions

Scott — Tue, 19 Oct 2004 20:35:00 GMT

Accurately predicting the outcome of an NBA season is hard enough when you have just a core of stable, dominant teams, but it's near impossible this year, with so many teams in the league reaching parity, thanks in part to some blockbuster trades and player movements in the offseason. (On an aside, can you remember a more eventful off-season in the past 15 years? Granted, there have been some big names moved from one team to another in the past 15 years - J-Kidd for Starbarry, for example - but most moves have been free agency or haven't occurred to the degree in this off-season. Shaq for Odom, Grant, and Butler and T-Mac for Francis being the big two.) The Vegas oddsmakers illustrate this coming season's parity among the top teams:

Spurs, 9-2
Pistons, 6-1
Kings, 7-1
T-Wolves, 8-1
Heat, 8-1
Pacers, 9-1
Rockers, 10-1
Mavs, 14-1
Lakers, 16-1
Nuggets, 18-1

Just a factor of 4 separates the top team from the 10th picked team. Compare this landscape to the odds in 2002-2003, when the Lakers had won two straight championships, winning the second in a dominant style, losing only one game in the entire playoffs. At the start of that season the Lakers were favored with 5-2 odds, or about twice as likely to win it all as the oddsmakers pick the Spurs of winning it all this coming year.

In any event, I want to make my picks for this coming season, so here we go:

Eastern Conference
The Eastern Conference is going to be dominated by the Pistons, with the Pacers close to their heals throughout. Look for the Wallaces to shine, Rip to hussle, Chauncey to make big shots when needed, and Tayshaun to look disinterested throughout. Darko might actually get some playing time, although I'd wager you could count his minutes on one hand, barring a major injury from another player.

The Heat are highly overrated, in my opinion. They'll do fairly well in the East, standings-wise, but will have a ho-hum record and have zero chance of making it to the Finals, let alone winning them. The Nets are kaput, expect a most dismal season from them. They'll be parring with the Knicks to see what team is more pathetic. Of course, in the East the Nets and Knicks will look leagues better than the bottom feeding Bobcats and Hawks. I think the Magic are overrated as well, I doubt Stevie Francis will be able to ignite the team any more so than T-Mac. The Celtics may be on an upswing, adding Payton, havig some time to gel after last year's mid-season trades. With any luck, the Cavs will build upon their successes from last season and break into the playoffs this year.

I think the East playoff picture will shake down like this:

Detroit
Pacers
Heat
76ers
Bucks
Cavs
Nets
Knicks

I now I just disparaged half the teams on the list, but when your competition is the Eastern conference, shit starts to look like gold.

Western Conference
The Western Conference is going to be where the excitement this year resides. I think we're going to have the most balanced conference that we've seen for a long time. As with last season, the majority of the West teams will have better records than the majority of East teams, and the perennial contenders will again rise to the top and make the playoffs. I am really expecting good things this year from the T-Wolves, Nuggets, and Rockets. The Spurs will be the Spurs, of course, and have one of the top records in the league. The Kings and Mavs will both be around the middle of the pack, as usual. I don't think the Grizzlies are going to be able to make the impact and have the success they had last season. I think the other teams - namely the Rockets and Nuggets - have improved too much and are too hungry. The T-Wolves have proven themselves and have added experience, KG is coming into his prime. Just too many good teams out there.

The teams I think have no chances to make the Playoffs include the Sonics, the Clippers, the Warriors, the Suns, and the Hornets. Everyone else in the conference has a shot, and I'd be willing to wager that we won't have a true picture of the Western Conference playoff seedings until very, very late in the regular season. Here's how I see the playoff picture boiling down:

Spurs
T-Wolves
Kings
Rockets
Nuggets
Mavs
Lakers
Jazz

Teams in the bottom spots could easily be replaced by the Grizzlies or the Trailblazers.

The Finals
In the end I'm hoping for a Spurs, T-Wolves showdown in the WCF, and a Pacers, Pistons showdown in the East. The Finals will pit the Wolves against the Pistons, with the Pistons coming out on top again. Yes, you heard it right: back-to-back for the Pistons, in part because of history. (Look back in the last 25 years, a lot of NBA teams win multiple, consecutive titles: Lakers, Bulls, Rockets, Pistons, Lakers, etc. Even those teams that don't are almost always contenders the subsequent years, such as the Spurs, who are still contenders after their last Final win back in the last millenium.).

A Game of Streaks

Scott — Wed, 24 Dec 2003 04:03:00 GMT

All sports have streaks of one kind or another - winning streaks, losing streaks - and the NBA is no exception. There are microstreaks, like the runs teams make during the game, and macrostreaks, like the streak the Spurs are exhibiting right now, and the slump the Lakers are going through at the same time. The Lakers have been playing like a disinterested, second-rate team as of late. After their 10 game winning streak early on in the season they are 2-3 in their last five games. And the two games at the end of their 10-game streak earlier in the season ended with two close victories against mediocre teams (the Knicks and the Jazz).

With the Mailman's loss to injury last night, the Lakers played the Golden State Warriors, a sub-.500 team prior to their victory tonight. The Warriors offered the Lakers an easy win before their Christmas day game against the Rockets, but the Lakers played ho-hum and lost 107-98. They lost to the Blazers last week. Their two previous wins - against the Nuggets and Suns - were squeakers.

While the Lakers are cooling off dramatically, their rivals are getting hot. The Spurs have matched the Lakers earlier streak, having picked up Ws their last ten outtings. The Kings, sans Webber, are playing lights out, and the Timberwolves are getting hot as well. Denver and Dallas, while not exceptionally streaky, can always win on any given night.

While talking about the Spurs, Wolves, Nuggets, and Mavs, how about taking a moment to give props to the Western Conference Midwest Division. The worst team in this division - a tie at 15-13 with Memphis and Utah - would be first in the Atlantic Division, and fourth in the Central Division. Records aside, Utah/Memphis would both have better records if they were in the Leastern Conference, and only a handful of Eastern teams, I think, are better than the worst teams in the West.

Anywho, Lakers have a good game this Thursday against the Rockets. Should be a nice addition to the inlaws Christmas party.