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2008-2009 Playoff Predictions

Scott Mitchell — Fri, 17 Apr 2009 15:07:00 GMT

Each year I post my (insanely inaccurate) playoff predictions prior to the start of the postseason. I some rare circumstances my picks are spot on - such as my prediction last year of a Lakers / Celtics Finals with the Celtics winning in 6 - but most of the time my guesses are horrific and gum up my entire bracket (such as last year's pick of the Wizards beating the Cavs in Round 1... whoops) or are just so divorced from reality, as in the case of picking that the Celtics would sweep the Hawks in Round 1. This year I didn't have as much time to pontificate on my playoff picks because the Western Conference seedings weren't finalized until the last day of the regular season. With such a tight bunching between the 2nd and 8th-seeded teams, every game this regular season mattered. From Chris Tomasson in Nuggets Can Thank Papovich for No. 2 Seed:

In San Antonio, they remember the Alamo. They also might remember Feb. 3. That was the night Spurs coach Gregg Popovich rested most of his top players against the Nuggets at the Pepsi Center. Playing the second game of a back-to-back situation after winning the previous night at Golden State, Popovich didn’t use Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili or Michael Finley. Although Ginobili had gotten hurt the night before, Popovich gave no concrete reason for resting the others.
The Spurs J.V. team battled well. But they fell 104-96 to assure that Denver won the season series 2-1. Well, guess what? The Spurs and the Nuggets both finished the season 54-28, with Denver, due to the tiebreaker, getting the No. 2 seed in the West and San Antonio settling for No. 3. Had Popovich used his top players that night and the Spurs won, San Antonio would be the No. 2 seed and would be in line for homecourt advantage for the first two rounds of the playoffs. Of course, an extra loss would have meant the Nuggets would have finished the season 53-29. That would have resulted in them losing the Northwest Division to Portland (54-28) and losing a tiebreaker to Houston (53-29) for the No. 4 seed.

Let's get started with this year's picks! I've put the winning team name from each series in bold.

Eastern Conference

Round 1
(1) Cleveland beats (8) Detroit - The Pistons have had a disappointing season marred by a disastrous trade. Cleveland and LeBron have been unstoppable, netting the league's best record with only two loses on their home court all year. Cleveland will win this series easily in 5. I forsee the Cavs being up 3-0 when the Pistons win a meaningless Game 4, only to have the Cavs dominantly close the series in Game 5 back in Cleveland (although a four game sweep wouldn't surprise me in the least).

(4) Atlanta loses to (5) Miami - D-Wade is a beast and here's the scary part - he could have been a Detroit Piston! I've mentioned this before many times, but we, as a society, can never forget - the Pistons took Darko as their #2 pick in the draft over D-Wade, Carmelo Anthony, and Chris Bosh. Ok, I feel better now. I see Wade putting forth a Herculean effort that cannot be stopped or matched by the Hawks. Heat in 6.

(3) Orlando beats (6) Philly - While Orlando has slipped a bit in the last bit of the season, they're in a perfect position now. They won't have to worry about the Cavs until the Conference Finals and they'd face a depleted Celtics team in Round 2. Philly will be a road bump for the Magic, who will win in 5.

(2) Boston over (7) Chicago - First, the bad news: Celtics Coach Doc Rivers announced that, after sitting out several games late in the regular season, Garnett will likely be out for the entire playoffs with a bum knee. While the Celtics have won the vast majority of their games during Garnett's absenses this season, one wonders how they will fare in the playoffs without the services of their emotional leader. This first round should be a good test as Chicago is the team that poses the greatest threat to any of the top-seeded teams in the first round. However, I don't think the Bulls have any real chance here - they're still too young and too inexperienced. There will be some interesting and close games, but the Celtics will prevail in 6.

Round 2
(1) Cleveland beats (5) Miami - Another walk in the park for the Cavs. I expect Wade will have at least one phenomenal game that overwhelms the Cavs - and the Heat have had a resounding win against the Cavs in Miami this year - but this series will serve as an appetizer for the main course - the Eastern Conference Finals! Cleveland in 5.

(2) Boston beats (3) Orlando - The Celtics are missing Garnett, they're old and tired from a six game series with the Bulls. The Magic are young and hungry and rested. It will be a good series with a couple of close games, but the Celtics experience and mettle will see them into the ECF. Celtics in 6, possibly 7.

Round 3
(1) Cleveland beats (2) Boston - The Cavs have everything in their favor going into the ECF - two "easy" Rounds, a very hungry and motivated LeBron, and a depleted Celtics squad firmly between their sights. The Celtics will have enough juice left in them to win one game at home, but the Cavs will overwhelm them in this series, winning in 5.

Western Conference

Round 1
(1) Los Angeles beats (8) Utah - The Lakers are the favored team in the West; the Jazz have been struggling late and have questions around the health of their star forward, Carlos Boozer. The Lakers bested the Jazz earlier this week. Things are not looking up for the Jazz. Even Jazz Coach Jerry Sloan admitted things are pretty bleak in Utah. While most analysts have written off the Jazz, I think they're going to give the Lakers two or three tough games, winning one or two. The Lakers have this series in the books barring any freak injuries, but the Lakers will have a couple of rough patches, especially seeing as how they are a team whose attention and energy is not always tightly focused. Lakers in 5, maybe 6.

(4) Portland beats (5) Houston - Portland is young, hungry, and talented. Houston is still struggling to get out of the first round of the playoffs this decade. I think this will be a heck of a series with some memorable games, but in the end I think Portland's youth and home court advantage will give them the series in 7.

(3) San Antonio beats (6) Dallas - The Spurs are old and without Manu, and Duncan's knees have started to deteriorate on him, but they still are the Spurs, they still know how to win in the postseason, and they still have a great coach in Popavich. The Mavericks biggest problem is their lack of defensive intensity and their inability to stop fast guards, like Tony Parker. There may be a close game or two in this series, but I see the Spurs pulling through without much ado, and winning in 5 or 6.

(2) Denver loses to (7) New Orleans - The Hornets are beat up and the Nuggets have home court advantage, but I think that if there is going to be one upset in the first round, this series will be it. Denver always seems one boneheaded play or emotional outburst away from a full-fledged breakdown, and Denver's stars have never seemed as hungry as the likes of Chris Paul. Granted, the Nuggets have the Hornets beat on talent, but I think last year's push into the second round and their hunger will give the Hornets the edge and the ability to best the Nuggets in a tight 7 game series.

Round 2
(1) Los Angeles beats (4) Portland - This should be a great matchup. Two fun teams who will bring a lot of energy and excitement to the floor. The Blazers will have an exciting win or two, but I see the Lakers winning this series in 5 or 6. The difference comes down to postseason experience. There will be a few key plays in key games that the Lakers will capitalize on and that will be the difference.

(3) San Antonio beats (7) New Orleans - This year's rematch of last year's WCSFs series will be just as exciting and will have the same outcome - Spurs in 7.

Round 3

(1) Los Angeles beat (3) San Antonio - The Lakers are too fast and too deep, too young and too hungry. The Spurs are too old, without Manu, and worn from a longer and more depleting Round 1 and Round 2. Much like last year's WCF, the Lakers will blow by the Spurs, winning in 5.

NBA Finals

(1) Cleveland loses to (1) Los Angeles - The Lakers have had the Cavs number this season, winning both games against the Cavs and handing Cleveland their first home loss (and only home loss until the last game of the season). The Lakers are hungrier, too, having gotten to the Finals last year, but losing in 6. This year, with a healthy Bynum, with Phil gunning for 10 rings, and Kobe needing a ring to cement his legacy and to prove that he can win without Shaq, the Lakers will take this series in convincing fashion, winning in 6 and being crowned the world champions!

Welcome to the Second Round

Scott Mitchell — Tue, 06 May 2008 03:36:00 GMT

What a first round! While there were a number of snoozer series that lacked a single competitive moment (I'm looking in your general direction, Denver), there were plenty of exciting battles, some where I expected, others in less expected series.

While the Spurs/Suns series had some exciting moments - Game 1 was the most amazing first round basketball game I've ever had the pleasure of watching - it was not nearly as competitive as I expected. What went wrong? I don't blame Steve Nash; nor do I think Coach D'Antoni deserves the blame. Rather, the blame lies squarely with the Phoenix Sun's front office. They've had personality issues with true quality players (Joe Johnson, Shawn Marion), they've traded away key role players (Kurt Thomas), they've always had too shallow a bench, and they've given up far to many draft picks over the years for cash and non-essential players. Bill Simmons has a much more thought out and in depth discussion on this topic that's definitely worth reading: A Requiem for the S.S.O.L Era in Phoenix.

How about the Hawks taking the Celtics to seven? Who could have foreseen that, especially after the Celtics thumped the Hawks in Games 1 and 2? But the Hawks never gave up (at least not at home) and gave the Celtics a run for their money. While the Celtics prevailed, you have to worry that going to the wire might shake their confidence and give other teams in the Eastern Conference more confidence.

Another team I gave far too little credit to in my playoff predictions was the New Orleans Hornets. They dusted the veteran Mavericks (and are giving the Spurs a run for their money in the second round) showing that sometimes youth, energy, and raw talent is more important than experience. Props to Chris Paul who, in his second year in the league, it showing glimpses of being a future Hall of Famer. (Speaking of Paul, check out the following video, which details his first high school game after learning about his grandfather being murdered. Chris went out and scored exactly 61 points, one point for each of his grandfather's years, and then walked off the court and collapsed into his father's arms.)

And now we're into the second round. Based on my pre-postseason picks, I am 6 of 8 (I picked the Mavs over the Hornets and the Wiz over the Cavs). I picked the Lakers over the Jazz, the Spurs over the Mavs, the Celtics over the Wiz, and the Pistons over the Magic. I think I'll be 3 of 4 on my picks here. I expect that the Lakers, Celtics, and Pistons will advance, but with the way the Hornets are outplaying the Spurs, it's looking like it will be the Hornets advancing to the Western Conference Finals. (Let me say it again - Chris Paul is pure amazement.)

This postseason is living up to its hype - a number of exciting and competitive series. Go Lakers!

2007-2008 Playoff Predictions

Scott Mitchell — Sat, 19 Apr 2008 16:53:00 GMT

Each year I post my (insanely inaccurate) playoff predictions prior to the start of the postseason. I some rare circumstances my picks are spot on, but most of the time I take a gamble or two and end up blowing the whole postseason (like last year, I picked the Dallas Mavericks to beat the Detroit Pistons in the Finals). This year I didn't have as much time to pontificate on my playoff picks because the Western Conference seedings weren't finalized until the last day of the regular season. The Denver Nuggets - the eight seed - have won 50 games this year. That would have netted them the four seed in the East.

Let's get started with this year's picks! I've put the winning team name from each series in bold.

Eastern Conference

Round 1
(1) Boston beats (8) Atlanta - I don't think the Hawks have much of a chance this postseason. They are facing, arguably, the best team in the entire NBA. Moreover, the Hawks have been playing poorly the last part of this season, they have very little playoff experience, and were swept by the Celtics during the regular season. Boston in 4.

(4) Cleveland loses to (5) Washington - The Cavs have had a disappointing year, culminating with a multi-player, mid-season trade that was, at best, a lateral move; at worst it was a step back. The Wizards, on the other hand, have gelled nicely as the season wound down, and Gilbert Arenas is back in the lineup, now giving his team a boost off the bench. The only thing the Cavs have going for them is the fact that LeBron is a beast and he can, single-handedly, win games, as was evinced in last year's Conference Finals. This series should be enticing because this is the third consecutive year these two teams have met in the first round of the playoffs, with the Cavs winning the first two meetings. This time I predict the Wizards will win in 6.

(3) Orlando beats (6) Toronto - Toronto has had a disappointing season, while Orlando has done better than expected, especially with the emergence of Hedo Terkoglu. Along with Detroit and Boston, the Magic are the only 50+ win team in the East. I think this will be Dwight Howard's year to shine in the playoffs. Orlando in 5.

(2) Detroit over (7) Philly - A lot of people knock Detroit for being overconfident. From past years, it seems that Detroit has believed that it can "Turn it on" when it needs to, and win pivotal games. For that reason, and because of Philly's strong play in the latter half of this season (vaulting themselves from the lottery to the #7 spot), they assume Detroit will have trouble with this team. I disagree. I think Detroit will come into this series with a renewed sense of focus and will dispatch of the 76ers in 5.

Round 2
(1) Boston beats (5) Washington - The Celtics are a much better team than the Wizards, which will be plainly evident by the end of this series. Boston in 5.

(2) Detroit beats (3) Orlando - While the Magic are clearly the third best team in the East, there's a fairly substantial divide between them and the Pistons. Orlando will win a game or two this series, and may be competitive in all of them, but I'm picking the Pistons in 6. Which sets up the Eastern Conference Final everyone's been waiting for...

Round 3
(1) Boston beats (2) Detroit - These two teams had some memorable regular season matchups, so this ought to be an exciting and hard-fought series. The Pistons clearly have the experience, having been to the ECF for several straight years now, but the Celtics are clearly the best team in the League this year. Granted, Garnett and company lack Finals experience, whereas the Pistons have been there twice in the last four years, and the Pistons enjoy a team chemistry that comes from years of playing together, whereas the nucleus of Garnett, Pierce, and Allen is not even one year old. Still, I like the Celtics and see them winning in 7.

Western Conference

Round 1
(1) Los Angeles beats (8) Denver - Denver is a team that, on paper, should be better than an eight seed, but this team has chemistry problems and consistency problems. Earlier this year Denver had won game where they scored more than 120 and then, the next night, gave up for than 120 in a loss. And they've exhibited little to no defense all season. This plays into the Laker's strength as they have a fast and furious offense. The Lakers main problem, in my opinion, is their lack of focus on defense. They've had a number of games the second half of this season where they had a large lead only to let it evaporate (like the 30 point lead they held against the Hornets only to end up winning the game by a solitary point. But with the Nuggets playing D-less ball, too, I can't see the Lakers blowing big leads, which I think they will have plenty of. The Lakers superior bench will separate them against most teams this postseason. Lakers in 5.

(4) Utah beats (5) Houston - Poor Tracy MacGrady has never been out of the first round in the playoffs and I can't see him and the Rockets getting past the Jazz this year, especially considering that the Jazz have home court advantage. Jazz in 5.

(3) San Antonio beats (6) Phoenix - This series is, by far, the most exciting first-round series I've ever witnessed. These two teams beat one another up in the Conference Semi-Finals last year; in response to their loss, the Suns waent big this season, trading Marrion for Shaq in February to better match up with the West's big men, like Tim Duncan. It took some time for the Suns and Shaq to mesh, but things are looking up. As long as the Big Fella can stay out of foul trouble, he should be able to dampen Duncan's scoring and rebounds. Additionally, the Spurs aren't getting any younger and aren't at their healthiest as the postseason draws near (with Manu and Barry having some health issues). But they have the experience, having gone deep in the playoffs every year since 1999. Given that, the Suns thin bench, and home court advantage, I have to pick the Spurs over the Suns in this series. But regardless of the final outcome, this series promises to be dramatic and exciting. Spurs in 7.

(2) New Orleans loses to (7) Dallas - The Hornets had a miraculous season, with Chris Paul playing lights out and in serious contention for League MVP. But they are too dependent on Paul. Take him out of the game and they fall apart. I think we'll see the Mavs trapping Paul with the ball, getting the rock out of his hands. What then? Yes, the Mavs have their playoff demons, and the Kidd trade has, so far, been an expensive wash, but I like the Mavs in this one. I think this is the worst matchup for the Hornets. They would have fared better against the Rockets or Nuggets. Mavs in 6.

Round 2
(1) Los Angeles beats (4) Utah - This should be a great matchup. Two great teams; two great coaches. The Jazz have a strong nucleus that has gotten deep into the playoffs the last two years. However, I think the Lakers have the edge here, assuming everyone stays healthy. Plus, I don't think the Jazz can win reliably on the road, and the Lakers have home court advantage. I see the Lakers winning the first two, the Jazz the next two, then the Lakers the two after that, to close it out in 6 on the road.

(3) San Antonio beats (7) Dallas - This Texas clash should be a great series, just like the Conference Finals two years back. I wouldn't be surprised to see this game go to the limit, with the Spurs winning the pivotal Game 7 in San Antonio.

Round 3

(1) Los Angeles beat (3) San Antonio - The Lakers are too fast and too deep. I think they'll blow past the Spurs, who will be exhausted from their back-to-back seven games series against the Suns and Mavs. Lakers in 6.

NBA Finals

(1) Boston beats (1) Los Angeles - Ah, a Celtics/Lakers Finals series - pure nostalgia! Boston had the best record and was, without doubt, the best team in the League this year. Granted, they played in the Leastern Conference, but they had winning records against elite West teams and Garnett, Allen, and Pierce will outmatch the Lakers. Allen and Pierce are far better than Odom and Gasol. And although the Lakers have a much deeper bench, I see a rested Celtics outplaying the boys in Purple and Gold. Celtics in 6.