Heat Sign Gary Payton to 1-Year Deal
On Thursday the Heat signed Gary “The Guard Formerly Known as 'The Glove'” Payton to a 1-year contract. GP will take over the starting PG spot, a spot vacated by Damon Jones's exit to Cleveland. As I've blogged about before, I don't think the Heat's upper management are making smart moves this off-season. Sure, it doesn't hurt to bring on some new faces, to try to improve your talent base, but the Heat have virtually reworked a huge portion of their roster. Yeah, Shaq and D-Wade are still anchoring the team, but there's four new faces, four new players who are going to see significant minutes throughout the season.
The challenge facing the Heat is having these “strangers” gel into a cohesive playing unit, and training camp is far too short for that to happen there. You may argue that that's what, in part, the regular season is for, meaning it wouldn't be surprising to see the Heat hitting a few roadbumps early on in the season, much like the Lakers did two years ago after their incredibly strong start.
The problem is, I fear the Heat can't weather such a misstep, thanks in large part to Stan Van Gundy and Pat Riley. Early in the off-season there were rumors that Riles would return to the bench, displacing Van Gundy. While Van Gundy is obviously the Heat's coach now, might Riley use a rocky start as an excuse to step in? Would the team be able to make such a transition in the face of the Pacers and Heat, who have a stronger core of players who are already all familiar with the team system?
I may be discounting the Heat too much here, as I did this time last year. From My Insanely Inaccurate 2004-2005 Playoff Predictions:
The Heat are highly overrated, in my opinion. They'll do fairly well in the East, standings-wise, but will have a ho-hum record and have zero chance of making it to the Finals, let alone winning them.
Well we all know how accurate that prediction turned out, with the Heat making it to the ECF and just 90 seconds from a trip to the Finals. However, unless something shakes out during the teams' training camps, I will likely make my 2005-2006 playoff predictions the same for the ECF as I did last year, with the top three spots going to:
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Pistons
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Pacers
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Heat
Regardless of how this season unfolds for the Heat, it's probably going to be their last real chance at a championship run until Wade becomes a more complete player and the Heat front office can surround him with the needed talent. Sorry, but Shaq's on the way out and many of these players playing this year will likely not be in town next year. Here's hoping for a wild ride, just like with the Laker's “Hall of Famer” season two years past.