Assessing my Playoff Picks Thus Far
Back on April 22nd I made my NBA playoff predictions. I am notoriously poor when it comes to making predictions, but, if you don't mind me saying, I did a pretty decent job in picking the teams through, at least, the first round.
Eastern Conference
My pick: Heat (1) beats New Jersey (8) in 6
Results: Heat (1) beat New Jersey (8) in 4. The series wasn't nearly as close as I had suspected, even with Shaq at half strength, still troubled by his leg injuries. However, the Heat did shoot insanely well, Wade and Damon Jones playing extremely well throughout the series, with a better than expected contribution from Mourning. That, coupled with the lackluster and inconsistent play from New Jersey gave the Heat an easy first round shutout, the only game of interest being the double-OT Game 3.
My pick: Detroit (2) beats the 76ers in 6.
Results: Detroit (2) beats the 76ers in 5. This series had a number of closer games than the Heat/Jersey series, but Detroit played pretty much in control throughout, even though they had some concerning deficiets in certain games. Watching this series increased my resolve in my pick as Detroit as the Eastern Conference champs. Even though they faced a number of situations in games where things looked dark, where it would have been easy to just pack it in and take the L, they stayed calm, level-headed, and pulled out the win. The mark of a true gelled, talented, professional team.
My pick: Celtics (3) loose to Pacers (6) in 6.
Results: ??? Game 7 is tonight. Personally, I think the Pacers will win this one. Regardless who wins tonight, though, I think they'll lose to the Pistons in 5 or 6.
My pick: Chicago (4) loses to the Wizards (5) in 6.
Results: Chicago (4) loses to the Wizards (5) in 6. Called this one perfectly. Chicago jumped out to a 2-0 lead in the series, but the Wizards hung tough and came back to win the next four straight, hanging on against a tough Bulls rally in Game 5 and coming from behind at the end of the game in the clinching Game 6. While this first playoff series win for the Wiz in 20-some years is great for the franchise and city, it's unfortunate that they now have to face the Heat, who I anticipate will take this series as convincingly as they did the first, winning in 4 or 5.
Western Conference
My pick: Phoenix (1) beats Memphis (8) in 4.
Results: Phoenix (1) beats Memphis (8) in 4. No surprises here.
My pick: San Antonio (2) loses to Denver (7) in 6.
Results: San Antonio (2) beats Denver (7) in 5. This was, admittedly, my “risky” guess, and I was giddy to see Denver win Game 1. But then the Spurs regrouped and showed their mettle. They are a veteran team used to the playoffs, and I anticipate they'll get past the Sonics without too much difficulty, winning in 5 or 6.
My pick: Seattle (3) beats Sacramento (6) in 6.
Results: Seattle (3) beats Sacramento (6) in 5.
My pick: Dallas (4) beats Houston (5) in 5.
Results: ??? Game 7 is tonight in Dallas. The Rockets played a lot better than I had expected, in large part thanks to McGrady playing off the hook, and a phenomenal Game 2 from Yao. My guess is that the Mavs pull out the W tonight unless McGrady has an insane game or Yao returns to his Game 2 form. This series has been one of the most interesting - exciting games, high scores, and Van Gundgygate, with Houston Coach Van Gundy getting a historic $100,000 fine and further threats from Commish Stern.
Depending on how tonight's two Game 7s turn out, I could be 7/8 for the first round, with my only incorrect pick my most risky.
Looking forward to the next round, I think the most exciting series will be the Suns v. Houston/Dallas, while the other series won't be too exciting. However, both Conference Finals ought to be amazing, assuming it's the Suns/Spurs and Heat/Pistons as it appears it will be. If those four teams make it to the Conference Finals, the NBA Finals are going to be great, no matter who makes it.