Lakers News and Commentary

My Insanely Inaccurate 2004-2005 Predictions

Accurately predicting the outcome of an NBA season is hard enough when you have just a core of stable, dominant teams, but it's near impossible this year, with so many teams in the league reaching parity, thanks in part to some blockbuster trades and player movements in the offseason.  (On an aside, can you remember a more eventful off-season in the past 15 years?  Granted, there have been some big names moved from one team to another in the past 15 years - J-Kidd for Starbarry, for example - but most moves have been free agency or haven't occurred to the degree in this off-season.  Shaq for Odom, Grant, and Butler and T-Mac for Francis being the big two.)  The Vegas oddsmakers illustrate this coming season's parity among the top teams:

1. Spurs, 9-2
2. Pistons, 6-1
3. Kings, 7-1
4. T-Wolves, 8-1
5. Heat, 8-1
6. Pacers, 9-1
7. Rockers, 10-1
8. Mavs, 14-1
9. Lakers, 16-1
10. Nuggets, 18-1

Just a factor of 4 separates the top team from the 10th picked team.  Compare this landscape to the odds in 2002-2003, when the Lakers had won two straight championships, winning the second in a dominant style, losing only one game in the entire playoffs.  At the start of that season the Lakers were favored with 5-2 odds, or about twice as likely to win it all as the oddsmakers pick the Spurs of winning it all this coming year.

In any event, I want to make my picks for this coming season, so here we go:

Eastern Conference
The Eastern Conference is going to be dominated by the Pistons, with the Pacers close to their heals throughout.  Look for the Wallaces to shine, Rip to hussle, Chauncey to make big shots when needed, and Tayshaun to look disinterested throughout.  Darko might actually get some playing time, although I'd wager you could count his minutes on one hand, barring a major injury from another player.

The Heat are highly overrated, in my opinion.  They'll do fairly well in the East, standings-wise, but will have a ho-hum record and have zero chance of making it to the Finals, let alone winning them.  The Nets are kaput, expect a most dismal season from them.  They'll be parring with the Knicks to see what team is more pathetic.  Of course, in the East the Nets and Knicks will look leagues better than the bottom feeding Bobcats and Hawks.  I think the Magic are overrated as well, I doubt Stevie Francis will be able to ignite the team any more so than T-Mac.  The Celtics may be on an upswing, adding Payton, havig some time to gel after last year's mid-season trades.  With any luck, the Cavs will build upon their successes from last season and break into the playoffs this year.

I think the East playoff picture will shake down like this:

1. Detroit
2. Pacers
3. Heat
4. 76ers
5. Bucks
6. Cavs
7. Nets
8. Knicks

I now I just disparaged half the teams on the list, but when your competition is the Eastern conference, shit starts to look like gold.

Western Conference
The Western Conference is going to be where the excitement this year resides.  I think we're going to have the most balanced conference that we've seen for a long time.  As with last season, the majority of the West teams will have better records than the majority of East teams, and the perennial contenders will again rise to the top and make the playoffs.  I am really expecting good things this year from the T-Wolves, Nuggets, and Rockets.  The Spurs will be the Spurs, of course, and have one of the top records in the league.  The Kings and Mavs will both be around the middle of the pack, as usual.  I don't think the Grizzlies are going to be able to make the impact and have the success they had last season.  I think the other teams - namely the Rockets and Nuggets - have improved too much and are too hungry.  The T-Wolves have proven themselves and have added experience, KG is coming into his prime.  Just too many good teams out there.

The teams I think have no chances to make the Playoffs include the Sonics, the Clippers, the Warriors, the Suns, and the Hornets.  Everyone else in the conference has a shot, and I'd be willing to wager that we won't have a true picture of the Western Conference playoff seedings until very, very late in the regular season.  Here's how I see the playoff picture boiling down:

1. Spurs
2. T-Wolves
3. Kings
4. Rockets
5. Nuggets
6. Mavs
7. Lakers
8. Jazz

Teams in the bottom spots could easily be replaced by the Grizzlies or the Trailblazers.

The Finals
In the end I'm hoping for a Spurs, T-Wolves showdown in the WCF, and a Pacers, Pistons showdown in the East.  The Finals will pit the Wolves against the Pistons, with the Pistons coming out on top again.  Yes, you heard it right: back-to-back for the Pistons, in part because of history.  (Look back in the last 25 years, a lot of NBA teams win multiple, consecutive titles: Lakers, Bulls, Rockets, Pistons, Lakers, etc.  Even those teams that don't are almost always contenders the subsequent years, such as the Spurs, who are still contenders after their last Final win back in the last millenium.).